Semiconductor Equipment - Berenberg Bank

ASM International NV
Small/Mid-Cap: Technology Hardware
Profit and loss – margin pick-up in 2013
Figure 18: Profit and loss
Eur mn 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E
Revenue
ASMI (front end) 456 370 398 477 499
ASMP (back end) 1,178 1,048 160 - -
Total revenue 1,634 1,418 559 477 499
Gross profit
ASMI (front end) 172 124 151 191 204
ASMP (back end) 410 316 38
582 440 189 191 204
Gross margin
ASMI (front end) 37.8% 33.6% 37.9% 40.0% 41.0%
ASMP (back end) 34.8% 30.2% 24.0%
35.6% 31.1% 33.9% 40.0% 41.0%
R&D
ASMI (front end) 49 59 59 65 68
ASMP (back end) 81 91 17
129 149 76 65 68
SG&A
ASMI (front end) 61 65 62 65 68
ASMP (back end) 115 138 26
176 202 87 65 68
Operating profit
ASMI (front end) 63 1 30 61 68
ASMP (back end) 214 88 (4)
276 89 25 61 68
Operating margin
ASMI (front end) 13.7% 0.4% 7.5% 12.8% 13.7%
ASMP (back end) 18.1% 8.4% -2.7%
16.9% 6.3% 4.5% 12.8% 13.7%
Source: Berenberg estimates
We expect ASMI’s gross margin and operating margin to rise to the historical peak
level reached in the previous cycle. We estimate the company gross margin at 34%,
40% and 41% in 2013, 2014 and 2015 respectively. We forecast that the group
operating margin will be 5% in 2013, 13% in 2014 and 14% in 2015. We expect
R&D and SG&A expenses to increase between 2013 and 2015 but at a slower pace
than revenue growth.
Dividends policy and cash distribution
After a three-year dividend break between 2008 and 2010, ASMI distributed
consistently stable dividends from 2010 to 2012. In 2012, it announced it would
buy back 2m shares from shareholders. In addition to the dividend and the
repurchase programme, it is returning 65% of the ASMP divestment proceeds
(€4.25/share) to shareholders. In total, ASMI distributed €335m cash to investors
from 2011, which is equivalent to about 20% of its market capitalisation.
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