Semiconductor Equipment - Berenberg Bank
Semiconductor Equipment - Berenberg Bank
Semiconductor Equipment - Berenberg Bank
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Tokyo Electron Ltd<br />
Technology Hardware<br />
Financials<br />
Profit and loss account<br />
TEL’s revenue includes revenue from SPE, FPD and PV equipment and EC<br />
components.<br />
TEL’s revenue model<br />
We model TEL’s revenue based on front-end order intake trends.<br />
Figure 13: TEL revenue forecast<br />
(Yen Billions) F13E (3/2014) F14E (3/2015) F15E(3/2016)<br />
FY H1E H2E F13E H1E H2E F14E H1E H2E F15E<br />
Orders<br />
Orders 210.7 254.6 465.2 232.4 219.5 451.8 232.7 240.2 472.9<br />
<strong>Semiconductor</strong> <strong>Equipment</strong> 198.7 240.6 439.2 217.4 204.5 421.8 214.7 222.2 436.9<br />
Movement YOY<br />
Orders 7% 3% 5% 10% -14% -3% 0% 9% 5%<br />
<strong>Semiconductor</strong> <strong>Equipment</strong> 39% 21% 28% 9% -15% -4% -1% 9% 4%<br />
Revenue - Total 262.5 286.7 549.2 308.5 287.1 595.5 289.9 303.2 593.1<br />
<strong>Semiconductor</strong> <strong>Equipment</strong> 200.0 220.6 420.6 233.7 210.7 444.5 206.9 219.2 426.1<br />
FPD <strong>Equipment</strong> 12.0 13.6 25.6 14.1 15.7 29.8 16.0 18.0 34.0<br />
PV Solar 8.0 10.0 18.0 16.0 16.0 32.0 20.0 20.0 40.0<br />
Electronic Components 42.5 42.5 85.0 44.6 44.6 89.3 47.0 46.0 93.0<br />
Movement YOY<br />
Revenue - Total -2% 24% 10% 18% 0% 8% -6% 6% 0%<br />
<strong>Semiconductor</strong> <strong>Equipment</strong> -7% 24% 7% 17% -4% 6% -11% 4% -4%<br />
FPD <strong>Equipment</strong> 30% 24% 27% 17% 15% 16% 13% 15% 14%<br />
PV Solar - - - 100% 60% 78% 25% 25% 25%<br />
Electronic Components 0% 1% 0% 5% 5% 5% 5% 3% 4%<br />
Source: Company data, <strong>Berenberg</strong> estimates<br />
We expect TEL’s equipment order intake to slightly increase in FY 2013 (ending<br />
March 2014), with a recovery in memory spend likely to drive its deposition<br />
segment, and with the mainstream logic/foundry segment starting to ramp up<br />
20nm/16nm FinFET mass production capacity. Order intake for FY 2014 (ending<br />
March 2015) will fall slightly as TEL is mainly exposed to low-growth and declining<br />
markets.<br />
We remain cautious about order intake for FPD/PV equipment and expect orders<br />
to increase at a moderate level.<br />
We estimate TEL’s underlying revenue will reach ¥549bn in FY 2013, which<br />
includes a ¥420bn contribution from the SPE segment, growing to ¥444bn in FY<br />
2014.<br />
Revenues and orders by customer/region<br />
TEL supplies equipment to the leading chip-makers in the logic, foundry and<br />
memory markets. The majority of its orders in FY 2013 came from foundry<br />
customers, in line with total capex spending trends, as foundry customers are the<br />
main buyers.<br />
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