Semiconductor Equipment - Berenberg Bank

Semiconductor Equipment
Technology Hardware
Figure 16: DRAM content/box
2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E
PC 2.8 3.5 4.2 4.6 5.0 5.7 6.4
Growth 15% 25% 21% 10% 9% 13% 13%
Tablet 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.5 2.2 2.7
Growth - 81% 25% 60% 62% 43% 26%
Smartphone 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.5 1.9
Growth 19% 74% 72% 30% 33% 38% 29%
Featrue phone 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.5 2.2 2.7
Growth 1% 81% 25% 60% 62% 43% 26%
Server 18.0 35.2 45.0 53.2 57.7 77.6 111.8
Growth 43% 96% 28% 18% 8% 34% 44%
Source: Gartner data, Berenberg estimates
In previous years, there has been DRAM capex investment in both capacity
expansion and technology migration. As per our conversations with various
industry sources, the current level of DRAM capacity in place is sufficient to
support annual bit growth of about 30% for the next five years. This level will,
therefore, be sufficient to meet our demand forecast (30% growth rate) (see Figure
15). Micron has even indicated that wafer capacity will decline in 2013 and 2014.
Therefore, we are only going to see capex investment on shrinkage, instead of
additional capacity building, apart from the remaining part of SK Hynix’s fab M12
expansion, which is likely to be very little.
Figure 17: DRAM shrinking roadmap
DRAM
Samsung
Micron
H1 2010 H2 2010 H1 2011 H2 2011 H1 2012 H2 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E
- 40nm started H1 2010 -Started 28nm Q4 2011,
-40nm/35nm/28nm.
-32nm stated 2012 Q1,
-50nm
-42nm &32nm
-25nm started
2012 end,
-23nm start in 2013
- expand 2Y(23nm/25nm)/28nm
-start and expand 24nm in 2013
end/2014,
-32nm &24nm , skip 28nm.
-2Ynm & 2Znm
(20nm/21nm).
- 24nm/2Znm
Elpida
SK Hynix
-44nm
-42nm
-38nm started Q1 2011,
-40nm/38nm
-32nm started Q1 2012,
-42nm & 32nm.
-plan to ramp up 25nm,
- expand 30nm/2xnm.
-3xnm account for 70%,
-28nm mass production started 2012 end,
-23nm start in 2013
- expand 28nm/23nm
-23nm & 2Znm
(20nm/21nm).
Others
-45nm/42nm/30nm
-30nm&2xnm start and expand
-2Xnm/2Znm
Source: Company data
In 2011 and 2012, all DRAM suppliers actively migrated down from the
50nm/40nm node to the 30nm/20nm node (see Figure 17). Process node
migration has slowed down after the accelerated period following the industry’s
adoption of ArF immersion stepper in 2009/10. Today, physical barriers and the
delay of the introduction of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography have raised
technical hurdles for DRAM-makers, compared with the industry’s previous
migration from 5Xnm to 3Xnm.
All three of the main DRAM suppliers plan to expand their 20nm capacity over the
next three years to 2016. Various DRAM vendors have told us that the node size
for DRAM could fall to 12nm/8nm after the 20nm generation. We therefore
estimate shrinkage-related capex will remain at a similar level for DRAM-makers
from 2014 to 2016.
17