Semiconductor Equipment - Berenberg Bank

ASM International NV
Small/Mid-Cap: Technology Hardware
Financials
ASMI has historically consolidated its ASMP results. However, following the
disposal of 12% of its ASMP shares on 15 March 2013, it has deconsolidated
these.
ASMI’s revenue model
We model ASMI’s revenue base on the front-end order intake trend.
Figure 16: Revenue model
Eur mn 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E
Revenue 1,634 1,418 559 477 499
ASMI (front end) revenue 456 370 398 477 499
ASMP (back end) revenue 1,178 1,048 160 - -
Total New Orders 1,370 1,377 725 515 531
ASMI (front end) new orders 398 360 491 515 531
ASMI (front end) new orders yoy -2.2% -9.6% 36.3% 5.0% 3.0%
ASMP (back end) new orders 971 1,017 234 - -
Source: Berenberg estimates
We estimate that ASMI’s underlying revenue will reach €559m in 2013, €160m of
which will come from ASMP, and that the front-end operation’s revenue will grow
to €467m in 2014. This top-line growth will be driven by the rising demand for
ASMI’s equipment. With the increased adoption of HKMG in advanced chip
manufacturing processes and ASMI’s strong share of the ALD market, we expect
ALD equipment to increase its revenue contribution.
We also expect its epitaxy revenue to grow as it may receive Intel orders for its
new epitaxy tools. PE CVD is also contributing to revenue growth, but to a lesser
extent because ASMI’s share of the market is minor compared with AMAT’s and
LAM/Novellas’.
Revenue by customer/region
ASMI supplies equipment to the leading chip-makers in logic, foundry and
memory, primarily for their deposition processes. It generated more than 50% of
its revenue from its top three customers in 2012 (Intel, Samsung, TSMC we
believe), compared with 40% in 2011. This concentration of revenue is a result of
the concentration in capex spending and we expect it to last in the mid-term.
Figure 17: ASMI revenue breakdown by customer/region
100%
100%
80%
80%
60%
60%
40%
40%
20%
20%
0%
2010 2011 2012
Top 3 customer No. 4-10 Rest
0%
2010 2011 2012
SE Asia EUROPE US Japan
Source: Company data
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