Semiconductor Equipment - Berenberg Bank

Semiconductor Equipment
Technology Hardware
Figure 29 shows that LAM dominates the etching market, with a 47% market share
in 2012, followed by TEL, with a share of 29%. TEL may lose share in etching due
to its focus on the low-growth dielectric etching market. AMAT has a 10% market
share of the etching market. In 2011 and 2012, it lost 9% of its market share in the
etching market, from both dielectric and silicon etching. In our opinion, winning
back the lost share from LAM and Hitachi will not be easy.
In the etching market, we think LAM will outperform as it has the greatest share in
silicon etching. We think TEL will underperform because of its heavy exposure to
dielectric etching (63% share). AMAT has a 10% share of the etching market. It
generates more revenue from silicon etching than dielectric etching, and has a
higher market share in silicon etching.
Wafer level packaging
The wafer level packaging market has doubled during the past 10 years. Its share of
semiconductor capex went up from 1.7% in 2004 to 3% in 2012. The growth was
mainly driven by solid TSV equipment demand, and offset by the fall in demand
for contact probers, which are used in testing (see Figure 30). We expect the
growth of the wafer level packaging market to remain robust, driven by 3D
packaging, although this solution is still not widely adopted by chip-makers. 3D
packing will gain more traction and become the key enabler for scaling after EUV’s
physical limit is reached. Chip-makers will then pay more attention to 3D
stacking/packaging solutions. We believe Samsung and other leading chip-makers
have already started pilot production lines using 3D packaging technology.
Figure 30: Wafer level packaging market trend
Wafer Level Packaging market by Solution
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Litho Tool TSV Tool Bump Processing
Packaging inspection
Others
Source: Gartner data
Figure 31: Wafer level packaging market share
Lam Research
3%
Rudolph
Technologies
6% Ulvac
5%
Source: Gartner data
Others
42%
Disco
15%
Applied
Materials
9%
Tokyo Electron
3%
Suss MicroTec
4%
EV Group
7%
Ultratech
6%
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