Semiconductor Equipment - Berenberg Bank

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ASML Holding NV Technology Hardware Key risks 1. EUV feasibility: If ASML and Cymer fail to improve EUV light power to the required 105-watt level before mid-2014, we believe its share price will be negatively affected. In our opinion, ASML/Cymer is the only player with the capability to deliver EUV tools with the required throughput level. The Cymer acquisition further increased the likelihood of ASML achieving the 105-watt target by mid-2014. Management retained its 105-watt light source power target in Q2 and indicated that it expected to achieve 80 watts by September/October 2013. 2. <strong>Semiconductor</strong> spending pause: ASML’s future success depends on how aggressive chip-makers shrink and on demand for leading-edge chips. The consumer electronics devices market has been driving demand for smaller chips in the past few years, so any slowdown in this market will affect spend. In our opinion, the consumer electronics market is unlikely to slow down in next few years due to strong demand from developing countries; however, we do expect intensified competition. Intel, Samsung, Apple and fabless players are likely to use leading-edge chip technology as a differentiation factor. Therefore the chance of chip-makers pausing investment in leading technology is very low. 3. Alternative technology: EUV is now seen as the most credible method to achieve further shrinkage; however, development of other technologies such as E Beam and DSA (directed self assembly) are still ongoing. In our opinion, alternative solutions like E BEAM, DSA are unlikely to replace EUV as the cost-effective solution for printing leading-edge node. E Beam/multi-beam is currently suffering significant throughput limitations. The throughput for a single machine is less than 1wph. DSA is a method of using block copolymer material to generate a repeatable pattern. As per Gartner data, DSA has the potential to significantly reduce lithography costs, as only single patterning is needed. It may potentially be used for 14nm, but the associated cost is prohibitive. 48
ASML Holding NV Technology Hardware Company background ASML is the world’s leading provider of lithography systems for the semiconductor industry, and manufactures lithography tools that are critical to the production of integrated circuits or chips. It designs, develops, integrates, markets and services the lithography tools used by its customers. Customers include all major foundry, logic and memory chip-makers and IDMs. Figure 20: ASML’s customers Company Samsung Intel TSMC group SK Hynix Globalfoundries Toshiba/Sandisk UMC Micron Sony Infineon Source: ASML ASML has a broad product portfolio for lithography tools, and it regularly refreshes tools to deliver a high specification. Figure21: Product portfolio Industry Memory/Logic/Foundry Foundry/Logic Foundry Memory Foundry Memory Foundry Memory IDM IDM ASML Product porfolio: EUV Resolution Throughput start shipping TWINSCAN NXE:3300 22nm/18nm 2013:43wph 2013 Q2 TWINSCAN NXE:3100 22nm/20nm 2013:43wph 2010 Q4 ArFi TWINSCAN NXT:1970Bi Estimate 2014 TWINSCAN NXT:1960Bi Estimate 2013 TWINSCAN NXT:1950i 38 nm >=230wph, aim250wph 2009 Q3 TWINSCAN XT:1950Hi 38 nm >=148 wph 2009 H1 TWINSCAN XT:1900Gi (OLD) 40 nm >=131 wph 2007 July TWINSCAN XT:1700Fi (OLD) 45 nm >=122 wph 2006 Q1 ArF TWINSCAN XT:1450H 65 nm >=162 wph 2007 Mid TWINSCAN XT:1450G 65 nm >=145 wph 2004 KrF TWINSCAN XT:1000H 80 nm 2008 Mid TWINSCAN XT:860K 110 nm >=210 wph 2007/2008 TWINSCAN XT:800K 120 nm >=220 wph 2007/2008 TWINSCAN XT:875G(OLD) 90 nm >=150 wph 2007 H2 TWINSCAN XT:870G(OLD) 110 nm >=150 wph 2007 H2 I Line TWINSCAN XT:400K 350 nm >=220 wph 2008 TWINSCAN XT:450G (OLD) 365 nm >=141 wph 2008 H2 TWINSCAN XT:400G(OLD) 365 nm >=149 wph 2007 Nov Source: ASML data 49
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