Semiconductor Equipment - Berenberg Bank

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ASML Holding NV Technology Hardware EUV drives ASML’s future success EUV is the key enabler of Moore’s law, and ASML holds 100% market share Semiconductor manufacturing is driven by Moore’s law, which states that the number of transistors on an affordable chip will double every two years. As chipmakers start to print 20nm chips, and subsequently 10nm, 7nm and 5nm chips, the EUV solution is both cheaper and simpler than ArFi solutions. ASML’s coinvestment programme demonstrated the commitment from Intel, Samsung and TSMC to this technology, and ASML is recognised as technology leader in this field. The DP/multi-patterning (MP) process using ArFi tools (which exposes the wafer twice instead of once in order to reduce the printed feature size) is now the mainstream solution for printing 20nm chips. However, manufacturers claim that this process is too costly because it increases the number of lithography exposures per wafer, meaning that they must either reduce output or buy more tools. EUV enables chip-makers to expose the critical layer in just one exposure instead of two. In terms of total cost per wafer (see Figure 5 below), EUV delivers cost savings of 34% compared with ArFi’s DP process, even if EUV tools cost twice as much to buy. Figure 5: EUV solutions deliver a cost benefit by ArFi by EUV Overall patterning cost (incl litho, etching, etc) €70.82/wafer €46.44/wafer Litho cost €23.36/wafer €31.74/wafer 2*ArFi exposures/layer 1*EUV exposure/layer Litho cost/total cost 33% 68% Source: ASML data Apart from the cost savings, EUV simplifies the fabrication process by halving the steps and cycle time required in DP (see Figure 6 below). Chip-makers are likely to allocate more “critical layers” – the layers on a chip that require the highest resolution and precision to EUV from ArFi. Logic/foundries players are likely to pick up EUV first to meet the demand for small chip designs from for consumer electronics devices, and because it is more expensive for them to use DP compared to memory players. 34
ASML Holding NV Technology Hardware Figure 6: EUV simplifies the process and the cost Source: ASML data Source: AMSL data ASML currently has a 100% share of the EUV market, and we do not expect this to change even after Nikon introduces its EUV tool after 2015/16. Lithography tools are usually fully integrated into the chip-manufacturing process, so manufacturers that want to switch tool vendors must reconfigure their processes and incur significant initial service costs. On our estimates, all major chip-makers will have three to four ASML EUV tools in place by 2015. It is therefore unlikely that they will place any EUV orders with Nikon. Even Nikon’s biggest customer, Intel, is unlikely to buy Nikon’s tools, unless they are superior to ASML’s. This is very unlikely in our view. Figure 7: ASML EUV status versus Nikon EUV status ASML Nikon Light source power 55 watt 10 watt @2012 Wafer throughput 43 wph 8 wph Adoption can be used for 20nm required for 16nm-11nm -ArFi is the primary tool for sub 20nm process, View on EUV -EUV will be adopted as soon as wph meets requirement -Limited focus on EUV, TWINSCAN NXE:3100 EUV tools na TWINSCAN NXE:3300 First shipment Q4 2010 na Machine shipped 6 shipped na 11 for 2013, Order in place na 8-12 potential order for 2014 - 2015: 30-36 tools, -Introduce EUV earliest 2015, Capacity - 2016/2017:60-66 tools -EUV in volume in 2018/2019. Source: Company data, Berenberg estimates Source: Company data, Berenberg estimates We estimate that ASML will ship 15, 24 and 50 EUV in 2014, 2015 and 2016 respectively, contributing €1.2bn, €2.3bn and €5.0bn respectively to its revenues. 35
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