Semiconductor Equipment - Berenberg Bank

ASML Holding NV
Technology Hardware
Figure 16: ASML P&L overview
2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E
Tool revenue ex EUV 4,768 3,760 3,660 3,990 3,564 2,801
EUV revenue 116 42 210 1,210 2,300 5,000
Software & Service 767 930 984 1,060 1,140 1,190
Cymer 0 0 180 320 340 355
Total revenues 5,651 4,732 5,034 6,580 7,344 9,346
Gross profit exEUV 2,451 2,005 1,957 2,207 2,041 1,736
Gross margin ex-EUV 44.3% 42.7% 42.1% 43.7% 43.4% 43.5%
Gross profit EUV 0 0 53 370 983 2,350
Gross Margin EUV 0.0% 0.0% 25.0% 30.6% 42.7% 47.0%
Gross profit Cymer- reported 0 0 -1 125 149 162
Gross margin Cymer- reported 0.0% 0.0% -0.7% 39.0% 43.8% 45.7%
Corporate Gross Profit - reported 2,451 2,005 2,008 2,702 3,172 4,249
Corporate Gross Margin reported 43.4% 42.4% 39.9% 41.1% 43.2% 45.5%
Corporate Gross Profit - adj 2,450 2,005 2,111 2,754 3,212 4,289
Corporate Gross Margin -adj 43.3% 42.4% 41.9% 41.9% 43.7% 45.9%
R&D - adj 590 589 875 920 800 760
SG&A - ajd 219 259 295 304 280 260
Other (income) expenses 0 0 -65 -120 -120 -120
OPEX - Adj 808 848 1,105 1,104 960 900
Op profit - reported 1,641 1,157 880 1,570 2,212 3,349
opm - reported 29.0% 24.4% 17.5% 23.9% 30.1% 35.8%
Op profit - adj 1,641 1,157 1,006 1,650 2,252 3,389
opm - adj 29.0% 24.4% 20.0% 25.1% 30.7% 36.3%
PBT - reported 1,649 1,151 870 1,570 2,212 3,349
Tax Expense 182 4 62 126 177 335
Effective Tax Rate % 11.0% 0.4% 7.2% 8.0% 8.0% 10.0%
Net income - Reported 1,467 1,146 808 1,445 2,035 3,014
Net income - adj 1,467 1,146 925 1,518 2,072 3,050
No of Shares 426 424 420 417 413 410
No. of shares diluted 429 427 424 421 417 414
EPS - Reported 3.42 2.68 1.91 3.43 4.88 7.27
EPS - adj 3.42 2.68 2.18 3.60 4.97 7.36
Source: Company data, Berenberg estimates
We estimate that ASML’s total revenue to be €5,034m in 2013, and grow at CAGR
23% to reach €9,346m in 2016, driven by EUV tool shipment and high ASP. In
2016, we expect EUV to contribute 54% of total revenue, with revenue from other
tools declining over time.
We estimate adjusted group gross margins will decline from 42.4% in 2012 to
41.9% in 2013, primarily due to initial EUV shipment at below the group average
gross margin (25%). We expect the group gross margin to improve over time due
to 1) an EUV gross margin uptick, 2) increased group revenue level leading to
leverage, and 3) increased services revenue and Cymer consolidation.
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