Semiconductor Equipment - Berenberg Bank

ASML Holding NV
Technology Hardware
We believe 2016 shipments will be strong as chip-makers will start to allocate more
layers to EUV as they gain more experience of the technology, and because
DP/MP is currently too complex/expensive to be used in 20nm/10nm mass
production.
Our assumptions for tools shipped are based on our end market analysis (see
Figure 8 below).
Our assumptions are as follows.
• Foundry/logic players (excluding Intel) will reach 340,000wpm 28nm
and 60,000wpm 20nm/16nm capacity in 2013, and will continuously
expand 20/16nm wafer capacity to reach 270,000wpm in 2016, which is
less than 28nm capacity today: TSMC stated that 20/16nm could be a bigger
node compared to 28nm. We have taken a conservative approach in making
our 20/16nm capacity assumption, as TSMC may re-use equipment from 28nm
if it ramps up aggressively on 20/16nm. We estimate that 10nm capacity will
begin to ramp up from 2016 and reach 20,000wpm in 2016. We included four
EUV R&D tools in our analysis and assigned €70m ASP for each of them,
which is lower than the normal EUV ASP of €100m.
• DRAM starts to adopt EUV in 2015, and migrates 53% of total wafer
capacity to 30nm and below in 2016: We have been conservative here to
reflect the memory spending pause. DRAM-makers plan to shift 69% capacity
to 30nm or less, according to their various statements. We included two EUV
R&D tools in our analysis, with an ASP of €70m each.
• NAND starts to adopt EUV in 2016, and migrates 65% of total wafer
capacity to 20nm and below in 2016: We have taken a conservative approach
on NAND, too, to take account of the expected memory spending pause.
NAND-makers plan to shift 83% capacity to 20nm or less, according to their
various statements.
3D NAND is less lithography intensive compared to 20nm/10nm NAND
design. Our analysis suggests the impact of 3D NAND on total capex is likely
to be small. We estimate that the maximum negative impact on EUV demand
by 3D NAND is 3 EUV tools.
• Intel will have 85,000wpm capacity on 22nm and 33,000wpm on 14/10nm
in 2016, and it will re-use ArFi tools in 2014 when 14nm/10nm first ramps up.
• In terms of market share, we assume ASML to have:
o 100% of the EUV order from all chip-makers;
o 100% of the ArFi/ArF tool order from foundry/logic (excluding Intel),
DRAM and NAND players;
o 60% of the KrF/I Line tool orders from foundry/logic (excluding Intel),
DRAM and NAND players;
o 60% of the ArFi,/ArF tool orders from Intel;
o 50% of the KrF/I Line tool order from Intel.
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