Semiconductor Equipment - Berenberg Bank

Semiconductor Equipment
Technology Hardware
Etching – positive from DP, FinFET, 3D NAND and small negative from
EUV
During the past decade, the etching market has grown by c0.5% a year compared
with the c2.6% growth of total semiconductor capex. Its share in total
semiconductor capex fell from 15% in 2004 to 13% in 2012. We expect the
demand for etching to increase with the ramp-up of DP/multiple patterning,
FinFET design and 3D NAND. The demand for etching is likely to decline when
EUV starts to eliminate the double/multiple patterning processes, but the decline
will be offset by increased etching demand from EUV mask manufacturing
processes. Therefore, on a net basis, we believe the etching market will remain flat
or slightly down in the next three years, and will underperform the total
semiconductor capex.
Figure 28: Deposition solutions – PE CVD/ALD/epitaxy to outperform
Etching market by Solution
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Bevel Edge Removal Metal Etch Dielectric Etch
Silicon Etch
Other Ethc
Source: Gartner data
Among the different etching solutions, silicon etching, which is dominated by
LAM and Hitachi, is likely to outperform the etching market and take capex away
from dielectric etching. This is because DP and 3D NAND/memory use more
silicon etching steps. FinFET design uses both silicon etching and dielectric
etching, and therefore has a neutral impact on the demand of silicon and dielectric
etching steps (see Figure 28).
Figure 29: Etching market share
Tokyo Electron
29%
Applied
Materials
10%
Lam Research
47%
Hitachi High-
Technologies
9%
Others
5%
Source: Gartner data
25