Semiconductor Equipment - Berenberg Bank
Semiconductor Equipment - Berenberg Bank
Semiconductor Equipment - Berenberg Bank
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ASML Holding NV<br />
Technology Hardware<br />
Figure 11: Lithography market double in 2016<br />
USD mn<br />
80,000<br />
70,000<br />
60,000<br />
50,000<br />
40,000<br />
30,000<br />
20,000<br />
10,000<br />
0<br />
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E<br />
Lithography capex <strong>Semiconductor</strong> capex Lithography as % total capex<br />
25%<br />
20%<br />
15%<br />
10%<br />
5%<br />
0%<br />
Source: Company data, <strong>Berenberg</strong> estimates<br />
The lithography market has grown by c1.7% over the past 10 years, while total<br />
semiconductor capex has fallen by c0.5% (see Figure 11). As stated above, chipmakers<br />
are constantly working to reduce the size of chips – and the smaller the<br />
chip the more it costs to print. We therefore expect the lithography market to grow<br />
at c20% for the next three years to reach $14bn in 2016, and for lithographyrelated<br />
capex as a percentage of total semiconductor capex to increase from 12%<br />
today to 20% in 2016. In our view, ASML, which is 100%-exposed to this market,<br />
will certainly benefit from this trend.<br />
39
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