Semiconductor Equipment - Berenberg Bank

ASML Holding NV
Technology Hardware
We estimate that ASML will hold an 80% share of the market in 2016, and
maintain its current penetration rate with existing customers. We do not expect
Nikon to develop EUV tools before 2015, and its ArFi tool’s throughput lags
ASML’s tool. The throughput of Nikon’s NSR-S622D ArFi tool, released in
January 2013, is 200wph versus 250wph of ASML’s NXT:1970Ci (to be released in
Q3 2013). Throughput is a key specification watched by chip-makers, as higher
wph means greater efficiency and cost-reduction per chip. We expect Nikon’s
shipments to remain at low levels and Intel will remain its main customer.
Figure 4: Lithography tool unit shipment
Type ASP units 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E
I-Line EUR 4-5m ASML 12 23 20 15 15 12 8
Nikon* 4 16 35 16 21 20 15
Canon 8 23 45 43 40 38 38
KrF EUR 9-12m ASML 17 68 87 78 52 50 32
Nikon* 16 12 28 3 6 8 10
Canon 3 6 7 3 3 2 1
ArF Dry EUR 20-23m ASML 10 12 11 4 4 8 8
Nikon* 1 1 3 8 11 8 8
Canon 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ArFi EUR 35-40m ASML 31 94 101 72 69 72 67
Nikon* 15 28 18 13 15 13 8
Canon 2 0 0 0 0 0 0
EUV EUR 70-100m ASML 0 0 3 1 3 15 24
Nikon* 0 0 0 0 0 0 2
Canon 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 119 283 358 256 239 246 221
ASML% 59% 70% 62% 66% 60% 64% 63%
Nikon% 30% 20% 23% 16% 22% 20% 19%
Canon % 11% 10% 15% 18% 18% 16% 18%
Source: Company data, Berenberg estimates
*Nikon 2012: FY March 2013
We do not believe that the depreciation of the yen will give Nikon a competitive
advantage over ASML. Chip-makers are unlikely to switch vendors purely to
obtain a lower price: the reconfiguration and integration costs associated with new
tools is likely to be more than the difference in ASP. Furthermore, chip-makers
usually value tool specifications and reliability more than they do price points.
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