Semiconductor Equipment - Berenberg Bank

More documents

Recommendations

Info

Semiconductor Equipment Technology Hardware Figure 26: Deposition solutions: PE CVD/ALD/epitaxy to outperform Deposition market by Solution 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 LP CVD PE CVD ALD APCVD/SACVD PVD MO CVD Epitaxy Source: Gartner data Figure 27: Deposition market share Tokyo Electron 12% Lam Research 11% Hitachi Kokusai Electric 7% ASM International 6% Applied Materials 47% Others 15% Veeco 4% Source: Gartner data As shown in Figure 27, AMAT holds a 47% share of the deposition market. It dominates all major sub-segments, including PE CVD, PVD and epitaxy. TEL holds the second-biggest market share at 12%, and is mainly concentrated in the CVD market. We do not expect the market share structure to change significantly in the next few years. We believe AMAT has continuously held the biggest market share because of its strong position in PE CVD and PVD solutions. TEL’s market share will benefit from ALD growth, and suffer from the decline in LP CVD adoption. ASMI’s market share may increase from 5% today, driven by the adoption of ALD and epitaxy. Among deposition market players, we like ASMI the most as it is only exposed to fast-growing ALD/epitaxy markets. We dislike TEL as it generates most of its deposition revenue from LP CVD, and its ALD exposure is not big enough to offset the LP CVD market’s decline. AMAT is widely exposed to this deposition market and is a leader in growing solution markets such as epitaxy and PE CVD. However, it is heavily exposed to PVD, which is growing but at a slower rate than the ALD, epitaxy and PE CVD markets. 24
Semiconductor Equipment Technology Hardware Etching – positive from DP, FinFET, 3D NAND and small negative from EUV During the past decade, the etching market has grown by c0.5% a year compared with the c2.6% growth of total semiconductor capex. Its share in total semiconductor capex fell from 15% in 2004 to 13% in 2012. We expect the demand for etching to increase with the ramp-up of DP/multiple patterning, FinFET design and 3D NAND. The demand for etching is likely to decline when EUV starts to eliminate the double/multiple patterning processes, but the decline will be offset by increased etching demand from EUV mask manufacturing processes. Therefore, on a net basis, we believe the etching market will remain flat or slightly down in the next three years, and will underperform the total semiconductor capex. Figure 28: Deposition solutions – PE CVD/ALD/epitaxy to outperform Etching market by Solution 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Bevel Edge Removal Metal Etch Dielectric Etch Silicon Etch Other Ethc Source: Gartner data Among the different etching solutions, silicon etching, which is dominated by LAM and Hitachi, is likely to outperform the etching market and take capex away from dielectric etching. This is because DP and 3D NAND/memory use more silicon etching steps. FinFET design uses both silicon etching and dielectric etching, and therefore has a neutral impact on the demand of silicon and dielectric etching steps (see Figure 28). Figure 29: Etching market share Tokyo Electron 29% Applied Materials 10% Lam Research 47% Hitachi High- Technologies 9% Others 5% Source: Gartner data 25
Page 1 and 2: BERENBERG EQUITY RESEARCH Semicondu
Page 3 and 4: Table of contents Shrinkage brings
Page 5 and 6: Semiconductor Equipment Technology
Page 23: Semiconductor Equipment Technology
Page 29 and 30: ASML Holding NV Technology Hardware
Page 53 and 54: ASM International NV Small/Mid-Cap:
Page 75 and 76:
Suess Microtec AG Small/Mid-Cap: Te
Page 77 and 78:
Page 79 and 80:
Page 81 and 82:
Page 83 and 84:
Page 85 and 86:
Page 87 and 88:
Page 89 and 90:
Page 91 and 92:
Page 93 and 94:
Applied Materials Inc Technology Ha
Page 95 and 96:
Page 97 and 98:
Page 99 and 100:
Page 101 and 102:
Page 103 and 104:
Page 105 and 106:
Page 107 and 108:
Page 109 and 110:
Page 111 and 112:
Page 113 and 114:
Page 115 and 116:
Page 117 and 118:
Tokyo Electron Ltd Technology Hardw
Page 119 and 120:
Page 121 and 122:
Page 123 and 124:
Page 125 and 126:
Page 127 and 128:
Page 129 and 130:
Page 131 and 132:
Page 133 and 134:
Page 135 and 136:
Page 137 and 138:
Semiconductor Equipment Technology
Page 139 and 140:
Semiconductor Equipment Technology
show all

Semiconductor Equipment - Berenberg Bank

Create successful ePaper yourself

Delete template?

Save as template?