Semiconductor Equipment - Berenberg Bank

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Tokyo Electron Ltd Technology Hardware Financials Profit and loss account TEL’s revenue includes revenue from SPE, FPD and PV equipment and EC components. TEL’s revenue model We model TEL’s revenue based on front-end order intake trends. Figure 13: TEL revenue forecast (Yen Billions) F13E (3/2014) F14E (3/2015) F15E(3/2016) FY H1E H2E F13E H1E H2E F14E H1E H2E F15E Orders Orders 210.7 254.6 465.2 232.4 219.5 451.8 232.7 240.2 472.9 Semiconductor Equipment 198.7 240.6 439.2 217.4 204.5 421.8 214.7 222.2 436.9 Movement YOY Orders 7% 3% 5% 10% -14% -3% 0% 9% 5% Semiconductor Equipment 39% 21% 28% 9% -15% -4% -1% 9% 4% Revenue - Total 262.5 286.7 549.2 308.5 287.1 595.5 289.9 303.2 593.1 Semiconductor Equipment 200.0 220.6 420.6 233.7 210.7 444.5 206.9 219.2 426.1 FPD Equipment 12.0 13.6 25.6 14.1 15.7 29.8 16.0 18.0 34.0 PV Solar 8.0 10.0 18.0 16.0 16.0 32.0 20.0 20.0 40.0 Electronic Components 42.5 42.5 85.0 44.6 44.6 89.3 47.0 46.0 93.0 Movement YOY Revenue - Total -2% 24% 10% 18% 0% 8% -6% 6% 0% Semiconductor Equipment -7% 24% 7% 17% -4% 6% -11% 4% -4% FPD Equipment 30% 24% 27% 17% 15% 16% 13% 15% 14% PV Solar - - - 100% 60% 78% 25% 25% 25% Electronic Components 0% 1% 0% 5% 5% 5% 5% 3% 4% Source: Company data, Berenberg estimates We expect TEL’s equipment order intake to slightly increase in FY 2013 (ending March 2014), with a recovery in memory spend likely to drive its deposition segment, and with the mainstream logic/foundry segment starting to ramp up 20nm/16nm FinFET mass production capacity. Order intake for FY 2014 (ending March 2015) will fall slightly as TEL is mainly exposed to low-growth and declining markets. We remain cautious about order intake for FPD/PV equipment and expect orders to increase at a moderate level. We estimate TEL’s underlying revenue will reach ¥549bn in FY 2013, which includes a ¥420bn contribution from the SPE segment, growing to ¥444bn in FY 2014. Revenues and orders by customer/region TEL supplies equipment to the leading chip-makers in the logic, foundry and memory markets. The majority of its orders in FY 2013 came from foundry customers, in line with total capex spending trends, as foundry customers are the main buyers. 130
Tokyo Electron Ltd Technology Hardware Figure 14: TEL order breakdown by customer type 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 MPU, System LSI, Others Foundry NAND DRAM Source: Company data Profit margin We expect TEL’s operating margin to increase from 3.2% in FY 2013 to 8.9% in FY 2014, and 8.8% in FY 2015, due to factory loading improvement following semiconductor order recovery. Balance sheet and cash flow TEL has a strong balance sheet, with ¥240bn net cash, and zero debt at the end of FY 2013. We expect TEL will maintain its healthy balance sheet for the near future and have ¥321bn of net cash at FY 2015. We forecast TEL to generate ¥19bn free cash flow in FY 2013, ¥38bn in FY 2014 and ¥60bn in FY 2015. 131
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