Semiconductor Equipment - Berenberg Bank

Semiconductor Equipment
Technology Hardware
Figure 14: DRAM capex versus total semi capex growth
% growth
200%
150%
100%
50%
0%
-50%
-100%
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
DRAM Capex
Total Capex
Source: Gartner data
Following the capacity digestion period of 2011-2012 and the 9% capacity cut in
2012, independent researcher Gartner forecasts that the DRAM market will enter
an over-demand phase in late 2013 at the earliest (see Figure 15). The growth of
DRAM demand will be driven by smartphone and tablet unit shipments, and
content per box growth.
From now on, DRAM bit shipment is likely to grow at a moderate rate of
30% rather than its historical level of 70%: 1) We believe the growth of the
smartphone and tablet market will be driven by mid-/low-end products with low
content per box (see Figure 16); 2) the demand uptick from smartphone and tablet
shipment is not sufficient to offset the decline in PC unit growth because
smartphones and tablets have a much lower content per box compared with PCs;
and 3) content per box growth is slowing down.
Figure 15: DRAM demand/supply
Mns of 1GB Eqv 2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E
Demand/Supply
DRAM demand 1,912 2,842 3,747 4,756 6,214
Growth 43.8% 48.6% 31.9% 26.9% 30.7%
DRAM supply 1,962 2,925 3,830 4,613 5,886
Growth 44% 49.0% 31.0% 20.5% 27.6%
ASP ($) 2.60 1.30 0.86 0.72 0.54
Sufficiency 102.6% 102.9% 102.2% 97.0% 94.7%
By Application
PC 51.6% 44.3% 39.0% 48.8% 45.1%
Tablets 0.2% 1.1% 2.4% 6.1% 8.1%
Smartphones 3.3% 6.1% 12.3% 18.2% 21.7%
Feature phones 2.4% 2.3% 1.8% 1.1% 0.8%
Server 8.4% 11.8% 11.8% 13.9% 13.6%
Consumer 7.7% 5.2% 4.0% 5.3% 4.8%
Other 26.4% 29.1% 28.7% 6.6% 6.1%
Source: Gartner data, Berenberg estimates
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