Semiconductor Equipment - Berenberg Bank

ASML Holding NV
Technology Hardware
Financials
P&L – EUV a future driver; foundry/logic orders solid
ASML’s revenue is made up of tool revenue and software and service revenue. We
model ASML’s revenue based on shipments of different types of tools.
Figure 13: ASML tool revenue model
2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E
Shipment units
I-Line 20 15 15 12 8 8
KrF 87 78 52 50 32 28
ArF Dry 11 4 4 8 8 12
ArF Immersion 101 72 69 72 67 49
EUV 3 1 3 15 24 50
New 195 146 126 141 123 131
Refurbished 27 24 17 16 16 16
Total 222 170 143 157 139 147
ASPs (E m)
I-Line 3 4 4 4 4 4
KrF 11 12 12 10 10 10
ArF Dry 20 22 23 23 23 23
ArF Immersion 35 38 42 45 45 45
EUV 39 42 70 81 96 100
Blended 22 22 27 33 42 53
New System (inc EUV) 24 25 30 36 47 59
Refurbished 4 8 5 6 6 6
Revenues by technology
I-Line 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 0%
KrF 19% 24% 16% 10% 6% 4%
ArF Dry 5% 2% 2% 4% 3% 4%
ArF Immersion 72% 71% 74% 62% 51% 28%
EUV 2% 1% 5% 23% 39% 64%
Revenues by technology
I-Line 62 56 61 48 32 32
KrF 945 908 632 520 333 291
ArF Dry 221 86 92 184 184 276
ArF Immersion 3,540 2,710 2,875 3,238 3,015 2,202
EUV 116 42 210 1,210 2,300 5,000
New system sales 4,772 3,621 3,790 5,104 5,768 7,705
Refurbished sales 112 180 80 96 96 96
Total Eqpmt sales (E m) 4,884 3,802 3,870 5,200 5,864 7,801
Total equip sales (exl EUV) 4,768 3,760 3,660 3,990 3,564 2,801
Source: Company data, Berenberg estimates
We expect EUV shipments to increase in volume in 2015 and 2016 after ramping
up slowly in 2013 and 2014. We expect logic/foundry companies to gradually
allocate more layers to EUV from ArFi as they gain more experience of it, and
memory-makers to start adopting EUV after throughput improves over time. We
estimate EUV will contribute the majority of ASML’s total tool revenue from 2016
onwards.
In 2013 and 2014, we expect ArFi tools to contribute the majority of ASML’s total
revenue and unit shipment. The adoption of the DP process by logic/foundry
players in 20nm node will drive solid demand for ArFi tools in 2013 and 2014.
Starting in H2 2014, the demand of ArFi is likely to decrease as the onset of EUV
reduces demand for DP. From this point, ArFi tools will then only be used for
non-critical layers.
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