ADB_book_18 April.qxp - Himalayan Document Centre - icimod

e the differences in countries’ positions regardingglobal warming.The third type of conflict may occur when civilstrife impacts environmental resources. Conflictingparties may initiate deforestation for their ownreasons, or may want to control the use of certainenvironmental resources.Theories Behind EnvironmentalConflictThe world is experiencing changes in the prices ofgoods and services, technology, socioeconomicconditions, demand, and regional and internationaltrade. Accordingly, the concept of “scarcity” cannotbe viewed as an absolute. Economies are increasinglymoving towards specialization in their areas ofrelative advantage, hoping to overcome the scarcityof any particular resource through internationaltrade. Given this trend, how can we explain thescenario of increasing environmental conflict overnatural resources? It is useful to review some of thetheories that explain environmental conflict.Pressures Related to Population GrowthRapid population growth has long been consideredone of the most important factors behinddeteriorating environments and ensuing conflicts.The world population is expected to stabilize around2050 at approximately 8.9 billion; much of theincrease will continue to be among the lessdeveloped countries where people depend onsubsistence agriculture and the use of naturalresources for their livelihoods (UN 2003). The use ofmarginal lands for agriculture, increasing soilerosion, deforestation, overgrazing, declining soilfertility, and decrease in land productivity are someof the major issues that derive from rapid populationgrowth. The sheer increase in population is likely tooutstrip available food supply and the capacity ofnatural systems to support human needs (Ehrlich etal. 1997)—a strong basis for much of the conflict.However, some consider that human populationgrowth made a turning point around 1962/63 whengrowth peaked at 2.2% per annum (UN 2003). Sincethen growth has continued to fall, and in 2001 it wasonly 1.2%. If this trend continues, human populationwill stabilize sooner than expected. However, thisdoes not mean that all environmental pressures andconflict will disappear; if population is one factorbehind increasing use of and competition for naturalresources, the other is increasing demand throughover consumption, including unequal distributionand access to resources.Neo-Malthusian notions of scarcity maintain thatpopulation pressure is behind the growing scarcity ofnatural resources (Gleditsch 2004). High levels ofconsumption have led to overexploitation anddepletion of resources, increasing competition forscarce resources, and eventually leading to conflictand at times even violent conflict. Thomas F. Homer-Dixon (1999), a prominent advocate of this positionand one of the better-known figures in the analysis ofenvironment and conflict, maintains thatenvironmental scarcity is likely to promote internalconflict. Related to rapid population growth, there isalso a youth bulge in some societies. As there are fewoutlets for the productive engagement of youth, theybecome vulnerable to depressing economicconditions and easier to recruit for violent activitiesthan other age groups.South Asian countries with large and poorpopulations impose a substantial demand on water,arable land, forests, and other resources. Alreadyproblems such as deforestation, soil erosion, andscarcity of fresh water are widespread and the areais being seen as a region of high environmentalinstability (Swain 2002).Policies, Markets, and InstitutionalFailuresExplanations about resource-related conflicts havefocused on the issue of common property resources.Where institutional mechanisms for managing theresource are weak, such as the absence of welldefinedproperty rights, it is inevitable that the“tragedy of the commons” will occur (Hardin 1968).Put simply, the tragedy of the commons statesthat when all members of a group have equal andunlimited access to a resource held in common, thatresource will inevitably be depleted. However,instances of collectively well-managed naturalresources do exist; adherence to principles of equityand institutional variables have been important insuch cases (Jodha 1986; Ostrom 2000). Economistshave attributed the tragedy of the commons to afailure of markets—the price mechanism fails tosignal the relative scarcity of a resource—and to thefailure of institutional mechanisms (Mason 1996). Ifthe price mechanism always worked, overexploitedresources held in common would provide incentivesfor better management because of the increase inthe value of these resources. This would be theopposite of conflict, but this does not occur becauseinstitutions are not able to function quickly inresponse to complex situations. Solutions are noteasily apparent, or involve a price that somemembers of society may be unwilling to pay. Theremay be problems of high transaction costs. Certainpolicies may now favor some groups throughChapter 11: Environment and Conflict: A Review of Nepal’s Experience157