science and technology. The last estimates for 2006 confirm this assumption hinting at a 26% increase intax revenues, which substantially overtakes the nominal growth in GDP.Regarding the Fe<strong>de</strong>ral Budget execution, Australia has had surplus since 1996 to date, which allowed fora substantial reduction in government <strong>de</strong>bt (Table 4).This was not the case for Argentina, which has seen high levels of budgetary <strong>de</strong>ficit since then and until2001. Such <strong>de</strong>ficits were financed by means of increasing foreign public <strong>de</strong>bt. Consi<strong>de</strong>ring only the years2000 and 2001, fiscal imbalances of US$ 6,049 and US$ 10,729 million are found in the national budget.These amount to 2.1% and 4.0% of GDP, respectively, to which provincial budget imbalances of around2% of GDP should be ad<strong>de</strong>d. The greater risk arising from an important public <strong>de</strong>bt accumulation 3 gaverise to a <strong>de</strong>pletion of voluntary funding sources and, subsequently, to the suspension of payments by theCentral Administration, which en<strong>de</strong>d in the <strong>de</strong>bt crisis at the end of 2001.As a result of the economic policy change and the strong fiscal adjustment already mentioned, the budget<strong>de</strong>ficit plummeted dramatically to just US$ 618 million in 2002 and changed into a surplus of more than3% of GDP from 2003 onwards. The surplus thus obtained ma<strong>de</strong> it possible to reschedule the foreignpublic <strong>de</strong>bt, to start repaying the <strong>de</strong>bt service and increasing the investment component in the publicbudget.Table 4Australia and Argentina. Fe<strong>de</strong>ral Budget Executionmillion US dollarsAustraliaArgentinaYear Revenue Expenses Balance Revenue Expenses Balance2000 101,715 96,020 5,695 43,189 49,238 -6,0492001 84,285 83,508 777 37,176 47,905 -10,7292002 96,441 98,503 -2,062 14,403 15,021 -6182003 122,574 121,645 929 19,244 18,935 3092004 132,767 130,606 2,161 24,363 21,425 2,9382005 161,165 158,797 2,368 29,311 25,992 3,319Source: Reserve Bank of Australia and Public Budget Secretariat, Ministry of Economy and Production of Argentina.3. EmploymentAt the end of 2005, the Australian unemployment rate was 5.2%. In Argentina, counting welfare recipientsas employed workers, this rate was 10.1%. Excluding the latter, the rate was 12.7% of the workforce.Unemployment has <strong>de</strong>creased steadily in Australia since 1990-91, when it was 10.9%, a figure similar tothe current one for Argentina. A floating exchange rate, mo<strong>de</strong>rate interest and inflation rates, and threeyearemployment contracts facilitated the domestic economy’s adjustment to the variable conditions of theinternational economy, which has gone through subsequent crises over the past fifteen years. Theparticular case of Asia in 1997-98 is especially worthy of note, since it represents the natural market for3 It had to be calculated in foreign currency due to the currency board in place from 1991 until 2001, when there wasa peso-US dollar exchange parity.
Australia by virtue of its geographical proximity, in addition to the dimension and dynamism of its <strong>de</strong>mand.The impact of the Asian recession was not as serious as had first been feared, probably due to currencyfloating and the US economic expansion, absorbing more Australian exports, as well as the privilegedfiscal position, which enabled the Australian fe<strong>de</strong>ral government to implement counter-cyclical policiesexpanding public expenditure until the crisis was overcome. As from the present <strong>de</strong>ca<strong>de</strong>, the stronggrowth of China and other Asian countries encouraged investment in mining and energy resources, whichresulted in an increase in production and exports. It also stimulated educational services exports,traditionally addressed to that continent. The low interest rates, abundance of liquidity and incentives toinvestment in real estate meant an unremitting dynamism for the construction sector which, together withthe remaining factors, allowed for an increase in consumption and investment <strong>de</strong>mand and, therefore, inlabour <strong>de</strong>mand.In Argentina, the unemployment rate, traditionally within one digit, sud<strong>de</strong>nly soared from 6% in 1991 to12.1% in 1994 and 18.1% in 2001. The one-to-one peso to US dollar peg, adopted by a convertibilitystatute enacted in 1991, was in place during a period when the United States currency showed asignificant appreciation. Consequently, it resulted in a loss of competitiveness of the economy andhin<strong>de</strong>red the adjustment to the changeable conditions present in the international scenario, such as thecrises in Mexico and Asia in 1995 and 1997, respectively, and the strong currency <strong>de</strong>valuation in Brazil(the country’s main tra<strong>de</strong> partner) in 1998. As a result, there was an increase in fiscal and balance ofpayments <strong>de</strong>ficits, foreign <strong>de</strong>bt and interest rates due to a higher country risk and <strong>de</strong>clining economicactivity. Therefore, it is not surprising that the highest unemployment peak was observed in 2001, with theexplosion of the economic, social and institutional crisis, characterised as one of the worst the country hasever suffered.The strong <strong>de</strong>valuation of the peso, fiscal discipline, monetary expansion and temporary suspension ofpublic <strong>de</strong>bt payments in 2002 ma<strong>de</strong> it possible to gradually reverse the drastic plunge in the GDP. As hasbeen pointed out, strong growth rates in output and services have arisen since 2003, which, together withthe budgetary consolidation, higher expenditure in investment, and <strong>de</strong>bt refinancing have produced theconditions necessary to create jobs and reduce the unemployment rate, which by the end 2006 couldreturn to the single-digit level.When assessing the unemployment level, an important aspect to bear in mind is one connected with thestability of the Australian participation rate, traditionally much higher than that of Argentina, together withthe substantial increase in the Argentine rate since 2001 onwards. The latter indicates that an increase inlabour <strong>de</strong>mand gradually stimulates a higher supply, attracting people who previously had no expectationsand were outsi<strong>de</strong> the labour market (Table 5).
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Revista del CEIComercio Exterior e
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SUMARIOCOYUNTURA COMERCIALEstructur
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PresentaciónLa sección de coyuntu
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G r á f i c o 3Diversificación de
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Las exportaciones de productos prim
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Relacionado con la evolución que v
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Vinculado al fuerte crecimiento que
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Este efecto fue revertido principal
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Aun así, merecen destacarse al men
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Cuadro A 1Evolución del saldo de b
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Cuadro A 4Exportaciones e índice d
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Cuadro A 6Saldo de balanza comercia
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las exportaciones en concepto de vi
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G r á f i c o 3Valor y cambio abso
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como lo son Egipto, Nigeria, Venezu
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G r á f i c o 2Crecimiento de las
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El total exportado también se encu
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Del Cuadro 1 se desprende una asoci
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Vehículos de navegación aérea, m
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Unidos. En todos los casos menciona
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BibliografíaCastagnino, T. (2006).
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Cuadro A 2G R Á F I C O 1:Exportac
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Cuadro A 4Exportaciones e índice d
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Cuadro A 6Saldo de balanza comercia
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las exportaciones en concepto de vi
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G r á f i c o 3Valor y cambio abso
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septiembre del año pasado un baja
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considera que al cierre del año la
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dólares norteamericanos, asciende
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Ambición y equilibrioen la Ronda D
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3. Resultados mínimos de las conce
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La aplicación de la propuesta menc
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4. La ambición y el equilibrio nec
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El ingreso deVenezuela al Mercosur:
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A 2006 la estructura arancelaria vi
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En principio la Argentina participa
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hubieron otros donde la participaci
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La otra metodología que se utiliza
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Asimismo, reconoce que la prestaci
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Según lo observado en los procesos
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Trade Facilitation:Definitions, WTO
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se puede establecer, según datos d
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La otra metodología que se utiliza
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Asimismo, reconoce que la prestaci
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