end of 2006. For the very first time in the past thirty years, a <strong>de</strong>crease in the income gap was verified. Thissituation would persist in 2007 due to the high growth rate the Argentinean economy continues to show.The same lower disparity effect is manifest in other indicators such as exports, which are growing annuallyat a two digit rate, the country’s credit worthiness and the situation regarding welfare reflected insignificant job creation, changes, though very gradual, in the regressive trend of income distribution, andthe increase in investment in infrastructure, education and health care.It is clear that four or five-year periods are not enough to reach <strong>de</strong>finitive conclusions. They merely enableus to outline what may be a new scenario subject to the continuity of policies in Argentina and the<strong>de</strong>velopment of the international economy on sustainable bases. The confirmation will <strong>de</strong>pend on theresponses to most of the questions mentioned throughout the previous paragraphs. Namely, thestrengthening and quality of institutions, including the role of the State as a promoter of investment ininfrastructure and human resources; the orientation of the economic policy to achieve growth in the longrun, diversification of the productive structure and international integration into dynamic <strong>de</strong>mand sectors;and, finally, the implementation of social policies for the sake of equity and to improve the people’s qualityof life.2. The Role of InstitutionsThe last 23 years were of uninterrupted <strong>de</strong>mocracy in Argentina, marking a turning point with respect tothe instability that characterised the constitutional system for more than 50 years, from 1930 until 1983. Byensuring a continuous political <strong>de</strong>bate, the participation of citizens in issues of government administration,the respect for human rights and civil liberties, and more transparency, this exercise of <strong>de</strong>mocracycontributes to improving governance. An example of this is represented by the Education Financing Lawrecently enacted as a long-term programme. This Law is likely to be succee<strong>de</strong>d by others related togovernment administration, the role and professionalism of the civil service, the protection of theenvironment and the quality of social policies.It is interesting to point out some substantial issues present in the public <strong>de</strong>bate either in Australia,Argentina or in both countries simultaneously and which are relevant for the quality of institutions andterritorial balance. These inclu<strong>de</strong> the following:• The advantages or disadvantages of a parliamentary system as opposed to a presi<strong>de</strong>ntial one,an option which has been suggested but has not become the object of thorough analysis inArgentina so far. In Australia, this issue un<strong>de</strong>rlies the proposals to transform the monarchy into arepublic and it is present in the role a future presi<strong>de</strong>nt would play in such an event; either strong,should he or she be elected by the people in a direct ballot, or more in the role of representationof the State, should the presi<strong>de</strong>nt be appointed by the Prime Minister subject to parliamentaryratification;• Regionalisation as a means of making the fe<strong>de</strong>ral system more efficient, reducing the number ofstates or provinces and promoting dialogue between the central administration and those ofstates or provinces. It has been argued that the smaller number of states or provinces inAustralia, which total eight, simplifies ministerial management and regular coordination betweenthe Prime Minister and state governors in or<strong>de</strong>r to make <strong>de</strong>cisions on significant goals, strategiesand problems relevant within society (biannual meetings are currently held at that level).• The location of the national capital far away from the main urban centres, with the aim ofbuffering their relative weight on investment and territorial planning <strong>de</strong>cisions. These reasonswere particularly taken into account when the <strong>de</strong>cision was ma<strong>de</strong> in 1911 to relocate theAustralian fe<strong>de</strong>ral government seat in Canberra. They also constituted the grounds for the bill of1986, never put into force, to move the Argentinean Fe<strong>de</strong>ral Capital to Viedma.• The automatic allocation of certain taxes to states or provinces, on the basis of a mechanismwhich contemplates population criteria, GDP share, a reduction in income disparity, territorial
occupation and <strong>de</strong>centralisation of economic activity. In Australia, this measure was implementedin July 2000 by means of a tax reform creating the value ad<strong>de</strong>d tax to be collected by the fe<strong>de</strong>ralgovernment and allocated to states. In Argentina, the Constitution enacted in 1994 stipulates theadoption of a tax revenue sharing system between the fe<strong>de</strong>ral administration and the provinces,but said system has not been agreed upon yet; and• The role of the civil service, arising from a rigorous and unbiased recruiting system, as a stablestructure to counsel and manage the operation of the various State <strong>de</strong>partments and institutions.In Australia, positions up to that of Secretary are filled by professional civil servants, while onlythe Ministers and their cabinets comprise political posts, coordinating management with thepermanent administrative structure. In Argentina, a similar system is applied at the Ministry ofForeign Affairs, International Tra<strong>de</strong> and Worship, but this does not extend to the different areas ofgovernment. For this purpose, several initiatives to be carried out by the National Institute ofPublic Administration are still pending.3. The Macroeconomic FundamentalsThe investment coefficient, this is, investment in relation to GDP, is at 16% in Australia, slightly above thelevel required for capital replenishment. In Argentina, said coefficient, which had been slightly over 10%during the 2001-2002 crisis, rose to 19.8% in 2005, and has been higher than 20% during 2006.Nevertheless, that level is still not enough to ensure sustained economic growth in the long run, higherthan 5%, in or<strong>de</strong>r to reverse stagnation, mo<strong>de</strong>rnise physical infrastructure and solve the social aftermathof a long stagnation period and recurrent crises.Both in Australia and in Argentina, the behaviour of the autonomous balance of payments is crucial for thegeneration of savings. In the case of Argentina, the <strong>de</strong>crease in external funding and the effect of <strong>de</strong>btrepayment, with its negative impact on the capital account of the balance of payments, <strong>de</strong>termine the needfor a substantial increase in the domestic savings ratio and foreign direct investment in or<strong>de</strong>r to finance theinvestment rate increase on a sustainable basis. Companies’ profitability, government’s primary savings,and the behaviour of the financial sector as an intermediary to channel household savings to theproduction sector appear as necessary prerequisites to pursue this aim.In view of this, a relevant aspect regarding companies’ profitability and the generation of genuine savingsto be allocated to investment has to do with relative prices of tradable goods and services and theirrelation with the domestic currency real exchange rate. In Argentina, since 2002, when the peso was<strong>de</strong>valuated, there has been a gradual improvement of competitiveness reflected in the increase in exports,particularly of industrial goods. In Australia, the significant expansion of the energy and mineral resourcesector and the important capital inflow have given rise to a strong currency appreciation, which affectsagricultural and industrial exports and induces a current account <strong>de</strong>ficit of almost 6% of GDP. Thisevolution is connected with the role the exchange rate and capital flows play in an open economy. While inArgentina the fundamental question lies on the restructuring of <strong>de</strong>bt repayment and services in or<strong>de</strong>r toobtain resources for investment in infrastructure and production, in Australia, capital flows and exchangerate fluctuations appear as the major constraints for the achievement of mid-term equilibrium in the currentaccount and for the restoration of the goods and services sector competitiveness.The above-mentioned exchange rate policies of a practically free floating and freedom of capital flows inAustralia and of dirty float with controlled capital movements in Argentina can be observed in a divergentevolution of output and of the balance of payments current account over the past years. If this divergenceis to persist, it will have effects on the potential for growth and supply adjustment to the internationalmarket and, additionally, on the long and mid-term macroeconomic equilibrium. While in Argentina themaintenance of a <strong>de</strong>preciated exchange rate represents an objective for the monetary and interest ratepolicy, in Australia, the target is to keep annual inflation within a 2% to 3% range creating a positiverelationship between the interest and exchange rates, the former increasing and the latter appreciating.This promotes portfolio capital inflow, which at the same time contributes to maintain exchange rateappreciation.
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Revista del CEIComercio Exterior e
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SUMARIOCOYUNTURA COMERCIALEstructur
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PresentaciónLa sección de coyuntu
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G r á f i c o 3Diversificación de
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Las exportaciones de productos prim
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Relacionado con la evolución que v
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Vinculado al fuerte crecimiento que
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Este efecto fue revertido principal
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Aun así, merecen destacarse al men
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Cuadro A 1Evolución del saldo de b
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Cuadro A 4Exportaciones e índice d
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Cuadro A 6Saldo de balanza comercia
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las exportaciones en concepto de vi
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G r á f i c o 3Valor y cambio abso
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como lo son Egipto, Nigeria, Venezu
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G r á f i c o 2Crecimiento de las
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El total exportado también se encu
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Del Cuadro 1 se desprende una asoci
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En el primer semestre del año, el
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Vehículos de navegación aérea, m
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Unidos. En todos los casos menciona
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BibliografíaCastagnino, T. (2006).
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Cuadro A 2G R Á F I C O 1:Exportac
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Cuadro A 4Exportaciones e índice d
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Cuadro A 6Saldo de balanza comercia
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las exportaciones en concepto de vi
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G r á f i c o 3Valor y cambio abso
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Se mantiene eldinamismo del BloqueH
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vez como miembro pleno, en junio tu
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en el primer semestre del año.Las
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septiembre del año pasado un baja
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considera que al cierre del año la
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dólares norteamericanos, asciende
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Ambición y equilibrioen la Ronda D
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3. Resultados mínimos de las conce
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La aplicación de la propuesta menc
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4. La ambición y el equilibrio nec
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El ingreso deVenezuela al Mercosur:
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A 2006 la estructura arancelaria vi
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En principio la Argentina participa
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hubieron otros donde la participaci
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se puede establecer, según datos d
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La otra metodología que se utiliza
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Asimismo, reconoce que la prestaci
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problema debido a que en el Anexo D
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Según lo observado en los procesos
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Trade Facilitation:Definitions, WTO
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se puede establecer, según datos d
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La otra metodología que se utiliza
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Asimismo, reconoce que la prestaci
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problema debido a que en el Anexo D
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Según lo observado en los procesos
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Australia - Argentina:convergencias
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Artículosde 2002 en adelante, por
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Artículosaustraliano), para la rat
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