FortisBC Inc. (FortisBC) Application for a Certificate of Public ...

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FortisBC Inc. (FortisBC or the Company)
Application for a Certificate of Public Convenience and Necessity
for the Advanced Metering Infrastructure Project
Response to British Columbia Utilities Commission (BCUC or the Commission)
Information Request (IR) No. 1
Table BCUC IR1 5.1a
Submission Date:
October 5, 2012
Page 10
Targeted level
Testing Outcome 1 2 3 4
Longer seal extension Level 1 10% - - -
Level 2 20% 30% - -
Level 3 40% 30% 40% -
Shorter seal extension Level 4 20% 20% 30% 60%
Fail 10% 20% 30% 40%
The following describes how the model used simulates the lifespan of the meter:
• Each year a lot came up for compliance testing, a random number from 1-10 was
generated. This random number was used to determine the outcome of the testing
process. For example, if targeting level 3, a random number of 1-4 meant the lot was
assigned to level 3, a random number of 5-7 corresponded to a level 4 and if the random
number was between 8-10 then the lot was assumed to fail testing;
• Based on this predicted level, an extension period was assigned to the compliance
group, and used to calculate a new seal date;
• A meter was replaced either when it was predicted to fail compliance testing by the
model, or at the expiry of its seal date after reaching level 4;
• This procedure was repeated sufficiently to simulate the entire life of the meter.
Based on the model used by FortisBC, all electro-mechanical meters are expected to have
failed statistical testing and therefore will need replacement by 2034. It should be noted that
more than half of these replacements are predicted to occur in the first 6 years as evidenced by
the following table. It outlines the number of electro-mechanical meters expected to be replaced
each year due to seal expiration without an extension, and meters that are replaced because
they are removed for the compliance sampling program.