FortisBC Inc. (FortisBC) Application for a Certificate of Public ...

Appendix BCUC IR1 86.1
The average number of 1000W lights per site is taken from data compiled by Fortis of
investigations undertaken between 2006 and 2012, and I have no reason to doubt its
legitimacy; I would say that the Plecas Report calculations of 90 days in the grow cycle
and 4 grow cycles per year likely assume a degree of organization that does not exist with
most grow operations – that is, most growers are unlikely to be so organized as to
consistently generate this annual energy per light, dependent, as it is, upon continuing
operations for 360 of 365 days in a calendar year. Put differently, growers of cannabis are
not a homogeneous group that is entirely committed to an intensely focussed approach,
and maximizing all opportunities for profit.
If we take a more conservative approach we might reset the equation for annual energy
expended per light to 90 X 14 X 3 = 3,780 kwh. Accordingly, the annual use of energy
for marijuana production in the area served by Fortis BC is 11,400 kwh per site (3,780 X
30 lights), and translated into Mwh for all 820 grow operations, 93,480 Mwh,
approximately, or 93.5 GWh. With residential load for Fortis BC in 2012 estimated at
3,502 GWh, we can see that the industry of marijuana production accounts for
approximately 2.7 per cent of electricity use (93.5/3502).
Fortis BC is making net present value projections for two different scenarios, one with
the existing theft investigation program in place (status quo), and one with AMI
deployment. With the status quo, Fortis is forecasting that approximately 30 per cent of
all growers will steal electricity, a pattern that is relatively consistent, though slightly
higher than their more recent experiences of the past six years; they are projecting this
rate of theft for the full period, 2012 to 2032. They are also forecasting that the number of
grow operations will almost double by 2032, but with the most significant growth
occurring between 2012 and 2016.
With AMI deployment Fortis is forecasting that by 2016 no more than 5 per cent of
growers will steal electricity, and that this pattern of theft will continue to 2032. They are
also forecasting that the number of grow operations will increase by less than 10 per cent
to 2016 and then continue to increase at a rate of approximately 2 per cent per year to
2032.
I will first make a number of general observations regarding these predictions before
moving to a discussion of their specifics. The industry of indoor marijuana cultivation is
a relatively recent phenomenon. Prior to the mid to late 1980s marijuana distribution was
almost exclusively an import-export business in Canada and in most other western states,
but the technology of cultivation and 1000W lights have now transformed both
production and distribution, so that production, distribution and consumption can now
take place in any location that has access to electricity.
It is very difficult to forecast with any degree of certainty the future of marijuana
production, distribution and consumption in Canada, and globally, particularly given the
time frame presented in the Fortis application: 2012 to 2032. Public opinion polls in
Canada demonstrate significant support for the decriminalization of possession, and for
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