FortisBC Inc. (FortisBC) Application for a Certificate of Public ...

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FortisBC Inc. (FortisBC or the Company)
Application for a Certificate of Public Convenience and Necessity
for the Advanced Metering Infrastructure Project
Response to British Columbia Utilities Commission (BCUC or the Commission)
Information Request (IR) No. 1
Table BCUC IR1 Q87.1b - AMI Program-Probable
Line Input Assumption
A Deterrence (% paying sites)
B Investigation success
C Total sites
D Total paying sites
E Total theft sites
F Identified theft sites
G Revenue Margin paying sites
H Power purchase cost of theft sites
I
Recovered revenue from theft
identification
J Total Benefit/(cost) of AMI -Probable
K
NPV of the Total Benefit for the AMI
Program-Probable
L NPV of Net Benefit
Deterrence ratio will increase from the
current 75% to 95% by 2021 with AMI
and remain at 95% thereafter.
The investigation success rate will
increase from 8% to 25% by 2016 and
remain at 25% thereafter.
Total sites are 6 % of the total
estimated provincially. This number is
inflated by 1% per year to reflect the
net of estimated customer growth at
2% and growers who may move to
alternate energy sources or leave
FortisBC altogether with AMI.
Total paying sites are the net of theft
sites and total sites 2013- 2020 and
95% of the total sites thereafter.
Total theft sites are the previous year’s
total less 90% of the sites which were
detected in for 2013-2020 and 5% of
total sites thereafter. The assumption is
that 90% of detected sites will become
paying customers.
Identified theft sites are calculated as
((B*C*(1-A)) from 2012-2032.
Revenue Margin from paying sites is
calculated for each year as(Marginal
Revenue *D*151,200kWh)/1000)
Power purchase costs of theft sites is
calculated for each year as (Marginal
Cost*E*B8151,200kWhs/1000)
Recovered revenue for theft sites is
calculated each year as (F*Marginal
Revenue*151,200kWhs/1000)+20%
This assumes that each theft site is
billed for an average 1 year loss and
collection success is 20% likely.
The benefit(cost) is calculated for each
year as G-H+I
The NPV is calculated as the sum of J
for 2012-2032 discounted at 8%
The sum of the annual differences
between the NPV Total Benefit for AMI-
Probable and Status Quo-Probable for
2012-2032 discounted at 8%.
Submission Date:
October 5, 2012
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