FortisBC Inc. (FortisBC) Application for a Certificate of Public ...

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Response:
FortisBC Inc. (FortisBC or the Company)
Application for a Certificate of Public Convenience and Necessity
for the Advanced Metering Infrastructure Project
Response to British Columbia Utilities Commission (BCUC or the Commission)
Information Request (IR) No. 1
The assumptions used in the calculation are detailed in the tables which follow.
Table BCUC IR1 Q87.1a - Status Quo-Probable
Line Input Assumption
A Marginal Revenue
FortisBC Residential Tariff Forecast
(Tier 2)
B Marginal Cost BC Wholesale Energy Market Forecast
C Marginal Revenue Margin (A-C)
Deterrence ratio will decline from
D Deterrence (% paying sites)
current 75% to 70% by 2017 without
AMI and remain at 70% thereafter.
The investigation success rate will
E Investigation success
remain at 8% as leads will not
increase.
Total sites are 6 % of the total
F Total sites
estimated provincially. This number is
inflated by 2% per year to reflect
estimated customer growth.
Total paying sites are the net of theft
G Total paying sites
sites and total sites 2013- 2017 and
70% of the total sites thereafter.
Total theft sites increase by 75% of the
H Total theft sites
growth in total sites 2013-2017 and
30% of total sites thereafter.
I Identified theft sites
Identified theft sites are calculated as
((E*F*(1-D)) from 2012-2032.
Revenue Margin from paying sites is
J Revenue Margin paying sites
calculated for each year as
(C*G*151,200kWh)/1000)
Power purchase costs of theft sites is
H Power purchase cost of theft sites calculated for each year as
(B*H*151,200kWhs/1000)
I
J
K
Recovered revenue from theft
identification
Total Benefit/(cost) of Status Quo
Scenario
NPV of the Total Benefit for the Status
Quo-Probable
Recovered revenue for theft sites is
calculated each year as
(I*A*151,200kWhs/1000)+20% This
assumes that each theft site is billed for
an average 1 year loss and collection
success is 20% likely.
The benefit(cost) is calculated for each
year as J-H+I
The NPV is calculated as the sum of J
for 2012-2032 discounted at 8%
Submission Date:
October 5, 2012
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