Health Risks of Ionizing Radiation: - Clark University
Health Risks of Ionizing Radiation: - Clark University
Health Risks of Ionizing Radiation: - Clark University
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30 Medical Exposures<br />
posed 2.69 times more risk than those taken in the<br />
third trimester. Mole (1990) demonstrated that the<br />
association seen in the OSCC was similar in both<br />
singleton and twin pregnancies. This finding was<br />
confirmed in the US by Harvey et al. (1985). Bithell<br />
(1993) combined the OSCC data with estimates <strong>of</strong><br />
in utero dose to generate an estimated ERR <strong>of</strong> 51/Gy<br />
(28-76).<br />
Studies in the US have produced similar results<br />
to those seen in the OSCC. MacMahon (1962) and<br />
Monson and MacMahon (1984) looked at children<br />
born and discharged alive from maternity hospitals<br />
in the northeastern states and found a RR <strong>of</strong> 1.47<br />
(1.22-1.77) with prenatal x-rays. It was found that<br />
excess cancer mortality was most marked in the<br />
ages <strong>of</strong> 5-7, where the relative risk was closer to<br />
2. With adjustments made for confounding factors,<br />
MacMahon determined a relative risk value for<br />
prenatal x-ray exposure <strong>of</strong> 1.52 for all cancers.<br />
Harvey et al. (1985), mentioned above, estimated<br />
the childhood cancer incidence RR to be 2.4 (1.0-<br />
5.9) with an average dose <strong>of</strong> 10 mGy. Bithell (1993)<br />
made a meta-analysis <strong>of</strong> all available data, including<br />
the studies mentioned above and several others. The<br />
overall RR was 1.38 (1.31-1.47) and the studies<br />
were remarkably consistent 35 .<br />
Several reviews <strong>of</strong> these data provide much<br />
more insight into the issue than we cover here 36 , but<br />
comments regarding the compatibility <strong>of</strong> atomic<br />
bomb survivor data bear repeating. Boice and<br />
Miller (1999) provide a skeptical voice, noting that<br />
the estimated risks from prenatal x-rays and in utero<br />
atomic bomb exposure are apparently not compatible<br />
(among other concerns 37 ). Wakeford and Little (2002,<br />
2003), however, decided that the atomic bomb ERR<br />
estimate for childhood cancer mortality was in fact<br />
compatible with the ERR estimate <strong>of</strong> 51/Gy (28-<br />
76) from the OSCC 38 . The atomic bomb data might<br />
not be a useful comparison for several reasons. The<br />
at-risk subgroup <strong>of</strong> the atomic bomb survivors was<br />
small (~1,200) and the expected number <strong>of</strong> childhood<br />
cancer deaths in exposed children was less than<br />
one. This statistical uncertainty is responsible for<br />
the wide confidence intervals noted above. It might<br />
also be the case that a few childhood cancer deaths<br />
occurred in the few years between the bombings and<br />
the onset <strong>of</strong> the studies; given the small numbers <strong>of</strong><br />
cancers observed any additional cases would change<br />
the risk estimates appreciably. It is also important to<br />
consider that atomic bomb exposures were over a<br />
wide range <strong>of</strong> doses. Effects such as cell sterilization<br />
or fetal death might have reduced the observed<br />
childhood cancer risk at higher doses.<br />
Wakeford and Little (2003) conclude that the<br />
atomic bomb survivor data are compatible with the<br />
prenatal x-ray exposure data and that the evidence<br />
supports a cause and effect relationship. The preferred<br />
risk estimate is an ERR <strong>of</strong> 51/Gy, equivalent to an<br />
EAR <strong>of</strong> 8%/Gy. Most importantly, these authors<br />
conclude that there is evidence <strong>of</strong> significant risk to<br />
doses as low as 10 mGy.<br />
3.6 Parental exposures<br />
Boice et al. (2003) analyzed the genetic effects <strong>of</strong><br />
radiotherapy. Specifically, they examined whether<br />
there was evidence that children <strong>of</strong> patients who<br />
received radiotherapy for cancer had an increased<br />
risk <strong>of</strong> cancer themselves. The authors found that<br />
children <strong>of</strong> radiotherapy patients did have elevated<br />
cancer risks but found that the risk was concentrated<br />
in the diseases known to have a strong hereditary<br />
component (retinoblastoma). This study is very<br />
different from other preconceptional exposure<br />
studies in that the exposures in this case occurred<br />
during childhood. Other human and animal studies<br />
suggest that risk is associated with paternal exposures<br />
that occur within a few months <strong>of</strong> conception; these<br />
childhood cancer survivors do not fit that description<br />
and may therefore be uninformative on the issue.<br />
35 The OSCC estimate was 1.39 (1.30-1.49) and the combined estimate from all other studies was 1.37 (1.22-1.53).<br />
36 Good sources <strong>of</strong> further reading include Doll and Wakeford (1997) and Wakeford and Little (2003).<br />
37 Boice and Miller (1999) also suggest that the in utero risks should not be greater than risks following exposures in<br />
infancy, that some cohort studies have been inconclusive, and that leukemia and solid cancer risks should not be so<br />
similar on biological grounds.<br />
38 The atomic bomb survivors exposed in utero produced only one childhood cancer death. An ERR <strong>of</strong> 7/Gy (-3-45)<br />
was estimated based on Japanese background rates and an estimate <strong>of</strong> 23/Gy (2-88) was based on rates among LSS<br />
subjects with little or no exposure (Delongchamp et al. 1997).