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34 Evaluation of Opportunities for Converting Indigenous UK Wastes to Wastes and Energy AEA/ED45551/Issue 1 One European study has assessed the factors affecting household consumption, and the effects on the environment (resource use, energy use and waste). 26 Another European study developed a model which assesses the effects of food, recreation, ‘infotainment’, care, clothing, and housing on waste growth and used this to model four scenarios which all assumed continued economic growth but had different future lifestyles. 27 The results of both showed that waste continued to grow - sometimes considerably higher than GDP growth rate, sometimes in line with GDP growth rate, and sometimes at lower than GDP growth rates. Data on MSW arisings from a number of European countries from 1997 to 2003 indicate that in some countries (e.g. Belgium and the Netherlands) waste arisings are growing more slowly than GDP growth. 28 The data also suggests that countries that have higher MSW recycling rates are seeing lower growth rates in MSW arisings; this may be because the impacts due to many years of publicity/education information on waste awareness and recycling are now becoming noticeable. However, this trend does not appear to be evident in either France or Germany. Figure 6 shows that the arisings of MSW in England increased from 24.6 million tonnes in 1996/97 to 29.4 million tonnes in 2002/03. This represents an average growth rate of about 3% per annum. However, there has been little growth in arisings since then; the overall arisings of 29.1 million tonnes in 2006/07 were lower than the arisings of 29.4 million tonnes in 2002/03, and the arisings in 2007/08 reduced to 28.5 million tonnes, which was lower than that in 2001/02. Million tonnes of MSW 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/2000 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 Year 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 Figure 6: MSW arisings (‘000 tonnes) in England 1996/97 to 2007/08 Although MSW arisings grew at an average of 3% per annum from 1997/98 to 2000/2001, the average rate of growth since then is now averaging less than 1% per annum. There are a number of possible reasons for this lower growth rate: • Waste minimisation campaigns (these usually take at least 5 years to show any noticeable effect) • Lower arisings of garden waste collected due to a combination of dryer summers and an increase in the amount of material that is home composted • Restrictions placed on the types of waste taken to the household waste recycling centres. 2006/07 26 Household Consumption and the Environment. European Environment Agency Report 11/2005. 27 Scenarios of Household Waste Generation in 2020. Report by Joint Research Centre for the European Commission, June 2003. 28 Eurostat - ec.europa.eu/eurostat 2007/08
Evaluation of Opportunities for Converting Indigenous UK Wastes to Wastes and Energy AEA/ED45551/Issue 1 There are a number of predictions for future MSW arisings: • A model created by the Future Foundation in 2006 assessed the impact of lifestyle changes on household waste arisings in the UK. 29 This model has a base case scenario in which waste quantities grow at an average of over 2% per annum from 2005 to 2020. • Another model by Oakdene Hollins in 2005 predicted future waste arisings based on national waste strategies and the need to meet various legislative targets. 30 This model has a base case growth rate of 2% per annum from 2005 to 2020. These models predict average growth rates of between 1% and 2% per annum, and the Waste Strategy 2007 developed four growth scenarios for MSW in order to assess a range of possible future outcomes to 2020: 1. 2.25% per annum reflecting recent trends in growth in consumer spending; 2. 1.5% per annum in line with national waste growth in the five years to 2004/05; 3. 0.75% per annum, in line with current projections of household growth and reflecting more closely national waste growth in the five years to 2005/06; and 4. 0% growth, representing the possibility that waste growth will be decoupled from household and economic growth. It is unlikely that scenario 4 (0% growth) will occur due to Government policy regarding future house building (even if a waste minimisation programme reduces the level of growth of waste in a household to 0%, the arisings of MSW will increase because of the increase in the number of houses). 31 It is also unlikely that scenario 1 (2.25% growth) will occur due to the emphasis on future waste minimisation in the new national waste strategy. Consequently, most growth forecasts use growth rates for MSW of 0.75% per annum as this reflects Scenario 3 in the national waste strategy, and this growth rate has been used to estimate future arisings of this stream. One type of waste that is now covered by European and UK legislation with the aim of reducing the amount sent to landfill is biodegradable waste. The intention here is to reduce the uncontrolled release of greenhouse gas emissions into atmosphere. The Landfill Directive also requires waste to be pre-treated prior to disposal. This has significant implications for energy applications as such waste will be available as a segregated feedstock, potentially advantageously pre-treated. 4.1.5 Conclusion In total the UK produced 34.4 million tonnes of MSW in 2008. UK local authorities have significant targets to meet in terms of recording information, segregating and recycling the waste and landfill diversion. Largely due to these requirements on the local authorities this waste stream is one of the best recorded and understood. There has been little growth in the volume of MSW produced in the UK since 2002, thought to be due to a combination of recycling schemes, reduced garden wastes due to dryer summers and increased controls on disposals accepted at civic amenity sites. MSW contains a wide range of materials, although this range is decreasing as recycling initiatives become more wide spread and more material diverse. Although recycling rates continue to increase each year overall, 62% of MSW is still currently landfilled in England. 29 Modelling the Impact of Lifestyle Changes on Household Waste Arisings in the UK. Report by the Future Foundation and Social Marketing Practice for Defra 2006. 30 Quantification of the Potential Energy from Residuals (EfR) in the UK. Report by Oakdene Hollins for The Institution of Civil Engineers and The Renewable Power Association, March 2005. 31 Opinion of internal AEA expert. 35
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South East 327 - - 55% of MSW by 20
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Appendix 3 MBT Methods Specific in
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Figure 27 Orchid Environmental proc
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