to read the full report - Ecolateral by Peter Jones

Evaluation of Opportunities for Converting Indigenous UK Wastes to Wastes and Energy
AEA/ED45551/Issue 1
There are a number of predictions for future MSW arisings:
• A model created by the Future Foundation in 2006 assessed the impact of lifestyle changes on
household waste arisings in the UK. 29 This model has a base case scenario in which waste
quantities grow at an average of over 2% per annum from 2005 to 2020.
• Another model by Oakdene Hollins in 2005 predicted future waste arisings based on national
waste strategies and the need to meet various legislative targets. 30 This model has a base case
growth rate of 2% per annum from 2005 to 2020.
These models predict average growth rates of between 1% and 2% per annum, and the Waste Strategy
2007 developed four growth scenarios for MSW in order to assess a range of possible future outcomes to
2020:
1. 2.25% per annum reflecting recent trends in growth in consumer spending;
2. 1.5% per annum in line with national waste growth in the five years to 2004/05;
3. 0.75% per annum, in line with current projections of household growth and reflecting more closely
national waste growth in the five years to 2005/06; and
4. 0% growth, representing the possibility that waste growth will be decoupled from household and
economic growth.
It is unlikely that scenario 4 (0% growth) will occur due to Government policy regarding future house
building (even if a waste minimisation programme reduces the level of growth of waste in a household to
0%, the arisings of MSW will increase because of the increase in the number of houses). 31 It is also
unlikely that scenario 1 (2.25% growth) will occur due to the emphasis on future waste minimisation in the
new national waste strategy. Consequently, most growth forecasts use growth rates for MSW of 0.75%
per annum as this reflects Scenario 3 in the national waste strategy, and this growth rate has been used
to estimate future arisings of this stream.
One type of waste that is now covered by European and UK legislation with the aim of reducing the
amount sent to landfill is biodegradable waste. The intention here is to reduce the uncontrolled release of
greenhouse gas emissions into atmosphere. The Landfill Directive also requires waste to be pre-treated
prior to disposal. This has significant implications for energy applications as such waste will be available
as a segregated feedstock, potentially advantageously pre-treated.
4.1.5 Conclusion
In total the UK produced 34.4 million tonnes of MSW in 2008. UK local authorities have significant targets
to meet in terms of recording information, segregating and recycling the waste and landfill diversion.
Largely due to these requirements on the local authorities this waste stream is one of the best recorded
and understood.
There has been little growth in the volume of MSW produced in the UK since 2002, thought to be due to a
combination of recycling schemes, reduced garden wastes due to dryer summers and increased controls
on disposals accepted at civic amenity sites.
MSW contains a wide range of materials, although this range is decreasing as recycling initiatives
become more wide spread and more material diverse. Although recycling rates continue to increase
each year overall, 62% of MSW is still currently landfilled in England.
29
Modelling the Impact of Lifestyle Changes on Household Waste Arisings in the UK. Report by the Future Foundation and Social Marketing Practice
for Defra 2006.
30
Quantification of the Potential Energy from Residuals (EfR) in the UK. Report by Oakdene Hollins for The Institution of Civil Engineers and The
Renewable Power Association, March 2005.
31 Opinion of internal AEA expert.
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