to read the full report - Ecolateral by Peter Jones

More documents

Recommendations

Info

66 Evaluation of Opportunities for Converting Indigenous UK Wastes to Wastes and Energy AEA/ED45551/Issue 1 increased CO2 and temperature) and indirect effects (e.g. higher winter temperatures are expected to increase the fecundity of deer and reduce tree growth through increased browsing). In addition harvesting and thinning plans are not binding and will be influenced by a range of factors: policy related, practical and commercial. These are likely to have significant consequences for future forestry residue resources even though they cannot be quantified at the moment. 100 • Forestry residue forecast Forestry residue in the form of small round-wood, poor quality stems, branches, tips and foliage from traditional forestry is expected to remain relatively stable at just under 2 million odt per annum up to 2020. • Private Sector residue forecast Small round-wood, poor quality stems, stem tips, branches and foliage together increase to 1.35 million odt by 2012-2016, followed by a slight decrease 1.3 million odt to 2020. • Public Sector residue forecast Available biomass from the public sector is about half that predicted for private sector. Considering small round-wood, tips, branches and foliage (there is no equivalent category to poor quality stems in the public sector), the prediction is that total biomass remains around 617k odt pa across Great Britain for 2007 – 2016, after which it falls slightly to reach 599k odt per annum by 2021. Table 32 Summary of future Woodland Arisings across Great Britain, private and public sector. Country Forecast Period Total Arising (odt pa) Scotland 2007-2011 931,062 2012-2016 1,033,598 2017-2021 1,019,815 Wales 2007-2011 274,794 2012-2016 260,346 2017-2021 242,563 England 2007-2011 664,083 2012-2016 669,653 2017-2021 637,862 Northern Ireland 107 2020 21,000 – 30,000 • Primary processing co-products forecast o The proportions of smaller and poor quality arisings are expected to remain stable in the near future. However the availability of larger dimension material is expected to increase substantially. For example, stem-wood of 18+cm diameter is forecasted to increase from 3.8 million odt per annum in 2003-2006 to 5.4 million odt per annum in 2017-2021. Assuming that the sawmilling sector uses this resource, co-product will increase proportionately. o In addition there is some indication that, compared to the present harvest, the form of larger dimension material is poorer than in material that will reach felling age in the next 20 years or so years. Conversion efficiency is therefore expected to fall with a concomitant increase in co-product unless saw-milling technology can make parallel improvements. o In Northern Ireland the forecast for 2020 is 50,000 – 200,000 odt pa, depending on whether a minimum or maximum scenario is pursued. 107 Assessment of the potential for bioenergy development in Northern Ireland, AEA, 2008, http://www.detini.gov.uk/cgi-bin/downutildoc?id=2314.
Evaluation of Opportunities for Converting Indigenous UK Wastes to Wastes and Energy AEA/ED45551/Issue 1 • Arboricultural forecast Although operationally available arboricultural arisings cannot be forecast with any certainty, it is estimated that it is unlikely to change dramatically. However, it is expected that arboricultural arisings will increase. This can be found in more detail Appendix 1. 4.6.6 Conclusions for Forestry Residues The UK has considerable natural wood resource, one that is not fully exploited at the moment and thus there is considerable room for use of this material in future energy solutions. However, traditional and existing markets must be borne in mind, as must market conditions that will affect the cost of such a resource. In addition the environmental implications of removing significantly more natural wood arisings from land, and the impact this may have on future land quality and embedded carbon need further assessment. The figures discussed here are the maximum practicable resource. For such quantities to be available a market for the product must exist and funding or incentives would be needed to set up the equipment and storage necessary. Currently there are limited supply chain connections, thus this quantity of wood could not be brought to the market in a short timeframe. The availability and feasibility of using wood based fuels is dependent on the policy framework. One such recent example of the Woodfuel Strategy for England (2006) has a target to bring an additional 2 million tonnes of woodfuel to the market, annually by 2020 from forestry residues supported by other sources such as arboricultural arisings and recovered wood. All the wood resource described above is clean, untreated wood, and is therefore eligible as biomass fuels under the current legislation, and are exempt from the Waste Incineration Directive. 4.7 Conclusions Waste, both controlled wastes and biological residues, represents a massive potential resource in the UK. Although significant amounts of such materials are already recycled, especially from MSW waste streams, or recycled onto land, as with many agricultural residues, a considerable amount of waste still exists and disposing of it is a challenge. Much of the residual waste that is disposed of through incineration or to landfill could potentially be more efficiently utilised, and may be a feedstock for the generation of energy or transport fuels. Summary of Waste Arisings • Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) is comprised of a very large range of materials, and total waste arisings are increasing. Data quality is good, and in 2007/08 the UK MSW arisings were 344 million tonnes. Even if the level produced by each household were to remain constant, the increasing number of households will result in increasing arisings. Recycling initiatives decrease the proportion of waste going straight for disposal, and the level of recycling is increasing each year. Most growth forecasts use a growth rate of 0.75% per annum. • Commercial and Industrial waste (C&I) is also comprised of a very large range of materials, with levels at 83 million tonnes in 2002/03. Overall levels of industrial waste are decreasing, while levels of commercial wastes are increasing. Again, recycling initiatives decrease the proportion of waste going straight for disposal, and the level of recycling is increasing each year, although in general recycling is not as advanced as for MSW. Growth rates have been taken as 1% per annum for commercial waste, and 0% per annum for industrial waste. 67
Page 1 and 2:
Evaluation of Opportunities for Con
Page 3 and 4:
Page 5 and 6:
Page 7 and 8:
Page 9 and 10:
Page 11 and 12:
Page 13 and 14:
Page 15 and 16: Evaluation of Opportunities for Con
Page 65: Evaluation of Opportunities for Con
Page 117 and 118:
Page 119 and 120:
Page 121 and 122:
Page 123 and 124:
Page 125 and 126:
Page 127 and 128:
Page 129 and 130:
Page 131 and 132:
Page 133 and 134:
Page 135 and 136:
Page 137 and 138:
Page 139 and 140:
Page 141 and 142:
Page 143 and 144:
Page 145 and 146:
Page 147 and 148:
Page 149 and 150:
Page 151 and 152:
Page 153 and 154:
Page 155 and 156:
Page 157 and 158:
Page 159 and 160:
Page 161 and 162:
Page 163 and 164:
Page 165 and 166:
Page 167 and 168:
Page 169 and 170:
Page 171 and 172:
Page 173 and 174:
Page 175 and 176:
Page 177 and 178:
Page 179 and 180:
Page 181 and 182:
Page 183 and 184:
Page 185 and 186:
Page 187 and 188:
Page 189:
South East 327 - - 55% of MSW by 20
Page 192 and 193:
Appendix 3 MBT Methods Specific in
Page 194 and 195:
Figure 27 Orchid Environmental proc
show all

to read the full report - Ecolateral by Peter Jones

Create successful ePaper yourself

Delete template?

Save as template?