ASPECTS OF TOTAL QUALITY MANAGEMENT APPLIED IN ...

Annals of the University “Constantin Brâncuşi”of Tg-Jiu, No. 1/2008, Volume 2,
ISSN: 1842-4856
THE EVALUATION OF THE EFFECTS OF TOURISM CRISES
Camelia Monica Gheorghe
Asist. Univ. Drd. Universitatea Româno-Americană, Bucureşti, România
ABSTRACT:
Effective crisis management requires information about the ways in which tourists of different nationalities respond to
different types of crisis. This paper provides a model which can be used to quantify such effects. The model is applied to the
case of US, French and German tourism demand in Scotland. The results show that French tourists were particularly
affected by the foot and mouth disease crisis. Germans were most severely affected by the September 11 events. Although
arrivals from the USA decreased after both crises, receipts were hardly affected.
Effective management of tourism crises requires considerable information about the nature of
the different types of crises that can occur and the extent and range of their effects. Much of the
research that has provided information about tourism crises has concentrated on providing typologies
of crises, examining popular perceptions of major events and studying the effects on particular sectors
and destinations. The effects of terrorist incidents and political instability have been a particular focus
of attention. Research has also been undertaken on the process of crisis management via improved
communication strategies and changes in management structures and operations. However, few studies
have provided quantitative measures of the impact of crises or forecasts of their impact. The need for
more information about tourism crises has been highlighted by Prideaux (2003), who showed that
investigation of the nature of crises is complex, as multiple events occur concurrently. Thus, for
example, a terrorist incident may occur within a period of financial crisis or political upheaval. In
practice it is difficult to separate the effects of the terrorist incident from those that stem from
contemporaneous events. Thus, the magnitude of the terrorist incident may be over- or under-estimated.
This paper will illustrate the ways in which quantitative techniques can provide more information about
tourism crises by examining the effects of two types of crisis, one internal to a country and one
stemming from an external incident. The first case is that of foot and mouth disease which affected the
UK from the spring of 2001, and the second is the September 11 terrorist events. Each case will be
examined in the context of its effects on US, French and German demand for tourism in Scotland.
Analysis of the impact of these events on tourism demand is complicated by ongoing changes in
relative prices and exchange rates for sterling, the dollar and the euro and incomes in the USA, France
and Germany. As all of these events affected tourist arrivals and receipts in Scotland, the magnitudes of
the effects of foot and mouth disease and of September 11, in isolation from those of other events, are
not evident. The absence of this information is problematic for policy makers who need to know the
extent to which the changes in tourism demand from different origins were due to the crises rather than
to other economic events. In the absence of such information, policy makers are unable to pursue an
effective strategy of tailoring crisis management strategies towards individual origin markets.
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