ASPECTS OF TOTAL QUALITY MANAGEMENT APPLIED IN ...

Annals of the University “Constantin Brâncuşi”of Tg-Jiu, No. 1/2008, Volume 2,
ISSN: 1842-4856
The mechanical methods used in studying the future of Bîrsa Land from the tourism point of
view include the method of the average rise and of the average index, while from all the analytical
methods only the linear trend method is considered as being the most suggestive.
The evaluation on the tourism activity within Bârsa Land for the next two years (2006, 2007),
may be achieved starting with the evolution had in view for the previous 8 years (1998-2005) for the
main indicators that would emphasize their future tendency.
The structural evaluation of the economic indicators related to Bârsa Land was accomplished
for 2006, on basis of a certain scheduling algorithm, this methodology including the stages described
below, taken from the “Economy of Utilities – case studies”:
‣ Calculation of transition matrices – which require the establishing of several transition matrices
depending on the number of years; within each matrix the smallest value shall be considered at
the crossing between lines and columns, establishing the “fidelity diagonal”, so that the
differences determines this way get distributed within the matrix and represent the increase and
diminish percentages within the structure of the analyzed indicator;
‣ Calculation of the total transition matrix – represents the stage in which the previously
determined elements contained in the transition matrices get cumulated;
‣ Determining the transition matrix of probabilities – consists in dividing each element within the
total matrix by the line total;
‣ Establishing the forecast structure – meaning to multiply the transposition of the transition
probabilities matrix by the vector of the structure of the last known (taken into account) year.
The forecasting process has in view both the main indicators of the technical and material basis
(number of structures for having tourists and number of accommodation places) as well as those of
tourism traveling (number of tourists coming in, number of nights as tourists) established for Bârsa
Land.
2. Evaluating the Number of Structures Taking Tourists in within the Territory of Bârsa Land
Data and information related to the number of structures taking tourists in within the territory
of Bârsa Land, allowed the applying of mechanical methods, based on which the values foreseen for
the following two years are also established, as follows:
Tabel 1 - Scheduling Algorithm for Calculating the Number of Structures Taking Tourists in and Their Evaluation, by
methods for mechanical and analytical adjustment:
Years No. of
t−1
y ˆ = y1 + Δ( t −1)
y ˆ = y1
⋅ I t t 2 t ⋅ y yˆ
= a + b ⋅ t
Units
t−1
y ˆ = 194 + 35,29 ⋅ t −1
yˆ
= 194 ⋅1,1245
yˆ
= 341,5 + 61, 37 ⋅t
( )
1998 194 194,00 194,00 - 2,0 4,00 -388,0 218,76
1999 234 229,29 218,15 -1,5 2,25 -351,0 249,44
2000 322 264,58 245,31 - 1,0 1,00 -322,0 280,13
2001 338 299,87 275,85 -0,5 0,25 -169,0 310,82
2002 342 335,16 310,19 0,5 0,25 171,0 372,19
2003 388 370,45 348,82 1,0 1,00 388,0 402,87
2004 473 405,74 392,25 1,5 2,25 709,5 433,55
2005 441 441,03 441,08 2,0 4.00 882,0 464,24
Total 2732 0,0 15,00 920,5
2006 476,32 495,99 2,5 494,93
2007 511,61 557,75 3,0 525,61
Source: Statistic County Directions.
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