ASPECTS OF TOTAL QUALITY MANAGEMENT APPLIED IN ...

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Annals of the University “Constantin Brâncuşi”of Tg-Jiu, No. 1/2008, Volume 2, ISSN: 1842-4856 Among the multiples methods of prevision used we mention, both the mechanical or analytical ones, which permit the obtaining of absolute values of the studies indicators, and also the method of Markov chains, which leads to the prevision of the structural modifications of the indicators under the processes of statistical analysis. The mechanical methods used for the prevision of the future, from touristic point of view, of the Bîrsa Contry include the method of the medium spore and of the medium index, while form the analytical methods the one of the linear trend is considered the most suggestive. The prevision of the tourism activity in the Bârsa Country for the following two years (2006, 2007), can be made beginning from the evolution followed for the 8 past years (1998- 2005) for the main indicators which to feature the future tendency of them. The structural prevision of the touristic indicators from the Bârsa Country for 2006 has been accomplished based on a calculation algorithm, the methodology supposing the following of the following steps, taken from „The Economy of services – case studies” [4]: ‣ The calculation of the transition matrixes – which needs the determination of several transition matrixes according to the number of years; in every matrix, it is taken the smallest value, at the crossroad of the columns and rows, determining the „diagonal of the fidelity”, so that the differences determined are distributed into the matrix and represents the increase and decrease of the structure of the analyzed indicator; ‣ The calculation of the total transition matrix – represents the step in which we sum the elements of the transition matrixes anterior determined; ‣ The determination of the matrix of transition probabilities – it is the division of every element of the transition total matrix at the total of a row; ‣ The establishment of the previsioned structure – which supposes the multiplication of the transposed of the transition probabilities matrix with the vector of the structure of the latest year. The process of prevision is referring to the main indicators of the technical-material base (number of touristic accommodation structures and number of accommodation places) and also indicators of touristic circulation (number of tourists arrivals and number of accomodations over night) established for the Bârsa Country. The oscillations of the touristic circulation in the frame of the Bârsa Country can be featured with the help of the main indicators of measuring, the number of arrivals of the tourists accommodated in the touristic accommodation structures, the number of the accommodations overnight. The tendencies regarding their evolution in the period 1998 – 2005 permitted the prevision of these indicators for the next two years. 2. The prevision of tourists arrivals number in the touristic accommodation structures of the Bârsa Country The application of the mechanical and analytical adjusting methods permitted to feature the evolution of the number of tourists arrivals in the touristic accommodation structures from the region of the Bârsa Country between 1998 - 2005 and the establishment of the absolute values of the studied indicator for 2006 and 2007. As the results of the calculation algorithm (table 1) of the number of tourists arrivals, in the period1998-2006, the number of arrived tourists followed the tendency of continuous increasing from a year to another, this tendency continuing in the following years, too. The method of linear trend is the one which indicates the fact that this increase of tourists number will be little enough, at the level of 2006 getting to approximately 398 thousand tourists, and in 2007 at only 408 thousands tourists, the yearly medium increase 248
Annals of the University “Constantin Brâncuşi”of Tg-Jiu, No. 1/2008, Volume 2, ISSN: 1842-4856 being established at a value of only 19 tourists. In opposed direction are the results of the application of the medium index which indicates a yearly medium increase of 1,0355 times from a year to another, the previsions indicating the most optimist tourist accommodation (the arrivals of approximately 496 thousands of tourists in 2006, respectively of 558 thousands tourists in 2007). Table 1 – Calculation algorithm of the tourists arrivals number and their prevision by mechanical and analytical adjusting methods yˆ = a + b ⋅t Number of y ˆ = y1 + Δ( t −1) t−1 They y ˆ = y1 ⋅ I arrivals ˆ years y = 347 + 13,7 ⋅ ( t −1) t−1 t t 2 t ⋅ y (thousands) yˆ = 347 ⋅1,0355 y ˆ = 350, 875 1998 347 347 347 - 2 4 -694 313,02 - - 1999 345 360,7 359,32 2,25 517, 322,48 1,5 5 2000 322 374,4 372,07 - 1 1 -322 331,95 - - 2001 323 388,1 385,28 0,25 161, 341,41 0,5 5 2002 286 401,8 398,96 0,5 0,25 143 360,34 2003 323 415,5 413,12 1 1 323 369,81 2004 418 429,2 427,79 1,5 2,25 627 379,27 2005 443 442,9 442,98 2 4 886 388.74 Total 2807 0 15 284 2006 456,6 495,99 2,5 398,20 2007 470,3 557,75 3 407,67 The source: The Districtual Offices of Statistics The method of medium spore is the one which offers the image most equilibrated of the future of tourists arrivals a in the Bârsa Country, being about 460 thousands tourists (457 thousands tourists in 2006 and 470 thousands tourists in 2007). 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 249
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