ASPECTS OF TOTAL QUALITY MANAGEMENT APPLIED IN ...

Annals of the University “Constantin Brâncuşi”of Tg-Jiu, No. 1/2008, Volume 2,
ISSN: 1842-4856
Among the multiples methods of prevision used we mention, both the mechanical or
analytical ones, which permit the obtaining of absolute values of the studies indicators, and
also the method of Markov chains, which leads to the prevision of the structural modifications
of the indicators under the processes of statistical analysis.
The mechanical methods used for the prevision of the future, from touristic point of
view, of the Bîrsa Contry include the method of the medium spore and of the medium index,
while form the analytical methods the one of the linear trend is considered the most
suggestive.
The prevision of the tourism activity in the Bârsa Country for the following two years
(2006, 2007), can be made beginning from the evolution followed for the 8 past years (1998-
2005) for the main indicators which to feature the future tendency of them.
The structural prevision of the touristic indicators from the Bârsa Country for 2006
has been accomplished based on a calculation algorithm, the methodology supposing the
following of the following steps, taken from „The Economy of services – case studies” [4]:
‣ The calculation of the transition matrixes – which needs the determination of several
transition matrixes according to the number of years; in every matrix, it is taken the
smallest value, at the crossroad of the columns and rows, determining the „diagonal of
the fidelity”, so that the differences determined are distributed into the matrix and
represents the increase and decrease of the structure of the analyzed indicator;
‣ The calculation of the total transition matrix – represents the step in which we sum the
elements of the transition matrixes anterior determined;
‣ The determination of the matrix of transition probabilities – it is the division of every
element of the transition total matrix at the total of a row;
‣ The establishment of the previsioned structure – which supposes the multiplication of
the transposed of the transition probabilities matrix with the vector of the structure of
the latest year.
The process of prevision is referring to the main indicators of the technical-material
base (number of touristic accommodation structures and number of accommodation places)
and also indicators of touristic circulation (number of tourists arrivals and number of
accomodations over night) established for the Bârsa Country.
The oscillations of the touristic circulation in the frame of the Bârsa Country can be
featured with the help of the main indicators of measuring, the number of arrivals of the
tourists accommodated in the touristic accommodation structures, the number of the
accommodations overnight. The tendencies regarding their evolution in the period 1998 –
2005 permitted the prevision of these indicators for the next two years.
2. The prevision of tourists arrivals number in the touristic accommodation structures
of the Bârsa Country
The application of the mechanical and analytical adjusting methods permitted to
feature the evolution of the number of tourists arrivals in the touristic accommodation
structures from the region of the Bârsa Country between 1998 - 2005 and the establishment of
the absolute values of the studied indicator for 2006 and 2007.
As the results of the calculation algorithm (table 1) of the number of tourists arrivals,
in the period1998-2006, the number of arrived tourists followed the tendency of continuous
increasing from a year to another, this tendency continuing in the following years, too.
The method of linear trend is the one which indicates the fact that this increase of
tourists number will be little enough, at the level of 2006 getting to approximately 398
thousand tourists, and in 2007 at only 408 thousands tourists, the yearly medium increase
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