2454 final report.pdf - Agra CEAS Consulting

Evaluation of the Community Plant Health Regime: Final Report
DG SANCO Evaluation Framework Contract Lot 3 (Food Chain)
Major pathways were well understood and subject to longstanding control, unlike the
case, for example with Diabrotica virgifera or PWN.
On the other hand, as highlighted by several MS CAs in the general survey and during the
interviews, the least effective protection is generally seen in the following cases:
Where public / private green space is involved;
Where lack of awareness combined with lack of monitoring and diagnostic services is
observed, limiting or delaying therefore the notification and early eradication of
outbreaks;
For non-listed HOs possibly presenting a risk but for which no clear actions are defined.
Ultimately, a critical factor for determining the success or failure of phytosanitary measures
taken in any sector will be the availability of incentives for action at all levels.
3.11.2 Analysis of impacts
This section considers the impacts associated to the introduction and spread of HOs in the EU.
The analysis relies on existing studies, which estimate a priori the potential costs of plant
diseases, or present estimations of the actual costs incurred by countries as a consequence of
losses for the establishment of a HO or borne by CAs to control the pest.
The purpose of the analysis is to illustrate the likely scale of impact (magnitude) of plant
diseases, in order to highlight the importance of the measures and the policy in place; in this
sense data related to the sector are also provided, as potentially the impact could extend over
the entire value of the sector. Where possible, extrapolations have been undertaken, based on
the value and volume of production of the sector, and extending the assumptions utilised in
the relevant study to an EU context.
The existing studies quoted below apply different methods to assess costs; therefore
comparisons are not always appropriate. A full analysis of the potential costs of plant diseases
would require a major analytical project, which should take into account a number of factors
(such as climate, biology of HO, production methods etc), and assess those costs for a number
of HOs/host plants. Furthermore, the impacts to be assessed should include economic
estimates of commercial, social and environmental impacts, and take into considerations both
direct (such as reduced yields and/or quality of the crops/plant products) and indirect impacts
(such as impacts on exports, changes in consumer demand and prices, changes in producer
costs or inputs demands, impacts on related markets, loss of tourism etc.). Such an analysis
requires complex modelling work, including detailed epidemiological models, as the basis for
estimating the costs and benefits of different courses of action. Indeed, a review of such
models by PRATIQUE, and in particular the Deliverable D2.1 (Bremmer et al. 2010), has
highlighted the complexities of the required methodology which, coupled with the lack of
appropriate data series, is the reason for the relatively limited analysis that is currently
available on the costs and benefits of pest risk management.
Nevertheless, past cases of HOs introduced and established in the EU, as well as estimations
of potential impacts show that the costs associated with plant diseases can be substantial, and
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