2454 final report.pdf - Agra CEAS Consulting

Evaluation of the Community Plant Health Regime: Final Report
DG SANCO Evaluation Framework Contract Lot 3 (Food Chain)
establishment of Tuta absoluta for the NL tomato sector could be high in a worst-case
scenario. These were estimated at €5-25 million /year due to crop losses and €4 million /year
due to pest management. The report also indicated that the potential economic impact due to
disruption of biological control and pollination was likely to be high and that the limited
number of registered active ingredients, combined with the possibility of insecticide
resistance could lead to difficulties in pest management of the organism. The endangered
areas in the NL are glasshouse production sites that grow around 1,500 ha of tomato, less than
100 ha of ornamental solanaceae and around 90 ha of aubergines in the NL. Glasshouse
production sites, growing around 200 ha, are also at risk in the UK.
3.11.2.1 Conclusions on impacts
Based on existing studies, past cases of HOs introduced and established in the EU, as well as
estimations of potential impacts show that the costs associated with plant diseases can be
substantial, and ultimately the scale of the impact can potentially reach the impacts recorded
in the case of animal diseases. For example, in the case of Bursaphelenchus xylophilus (PWN)
the control costs of the disease in PT have reached some 40 million € in the period 1999-2008
(including solidarity funding); the potential economic impact of failure to act could reach
some 5 billion €/year from the potential destruction of some 10-13 million ha of susceptible
coniferous trees (50-90% mortality rate). Other cases not specific to the EU, but that have
occurred elsewhere, are an example of the potential scale of impact that could be reached.
Ultimately, in value terms, in the EU, the share of production and exports of plants and plant
products to the total value of agricultural production and exports is comparable to that of
animals and animal products.
The main lesson drawn from the cases of failure or partial failure (e.g. PWN; Rhynchophorus
ferrugineus - red plam weevil; Tuta Absoluta) is the need to act quickly and decisively in case
of introduction. Currently, the evaluation of the situation before taking measures is,
sometimes, too slow or not decisive enough in responding to phytosanitary emergencies.
From a trade point of view, the slower the recognition of new pests entering the territory, the
more barriers to trade may arise in both the short and long term. The EU may decide not to
regulate the pests of concern to third countries, but at least a quick evaluation of the risks
would be useful and would make it easier for exporters to adapt to new market situations,
instead of facing emergency measures disrupting trade.
3.11.3 Analysis of benefits
This section considers the economic and environmental benefits of the CPHR. The objective
of the analysis is not to provide a total figure in € for the benefits, but to consider the main
combinations of HO-plant for which the CPHR allowed to avoid the introduction of the HO
or delayed its spread into the Community. It follows a qualitative approach, based on, where
available, quantitative estimations of the areas susceptible to potential contamination.
Analysing the benefits of the CPHR would require a major analytical project, in that it would
necessitate a holistic approach considering the role of all factors that may enter into play in
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