2454 final report.pdf - Agra CEAS Consulting

Evaluation of the Community Plant Health Regime: Final Report
DG SANCO Evaluation Framework Contract Lot 3 (Food Chain)
forestry from insect pests and insect-borne diseases is less important at higher latitudes, owing
to the less favourable conditions. On the other hand, new pests are expected to be introduced
via natural spread from the North of Africa and Middle East as the modified climate is
becoming favourable to this spread 47 .
Additionally, under changing climatic conditions, some organisms may reach a higher
population level and possibly start to naturally spread as climatic conditions become more
favourable. These effects are increasingly evident around the world, with weather patterns
becoming an excellent predictive model for pest patterns, especially in cases of extreme
climatic events, e.g. strong co-relation between the El Nino cycle and pest numbers are
evident in newly emerging studies 48 .
Therefore along with modifications of trade patterns (new supply chains, multiplication of
origins of plants and plant products, more exotic species, etc.), which are considered to be the
main pathway for the introduction of HOs and invasive species, global warming plays a
complementary role being the other important ―driver of change‖ affecting both the incidence
and severity of plant diseases 49 .
In terms of the sectors most affected by natural spread, both MS CAs and stakeholders
(respondents) to the general survey consider that the damages caused by natural spread of
regulated HOs are more important in forestry followed closely by agriculture, public and
private garden and horticulture. Aquaculture seems not to be as highly affected by this
problem (or perhaps awareness is lower), although certain interviewees and some literature
point to certain impacts of natural spread in relation to IAS aquatic plants.
General survey results
Q1.2.f Importance of the damage caused by natural spread of regulated HOs in the following sectors:
Areas MS-CA Stakeholders
Forestry
Out of 25: 16 ‗high‘ and 4 ‗medium‘ Out of 30: 9 ‗high‘ and 5 ‗medium‘
answers (2 do not know)
answers (14 do not know)
Agriculture
Out of 25: 15 ‗high‘ and 6 ‗medium‘
answers (1 do not know)
Out of 29: 5 ‗high‘ and 10 ‗medium‘
answers (12 do not know)
47 A number of presentations on this were made at the Conference organised under the CPHR evaluation:
Modernising the plant health regime in view of globalisation and climate change (23/24 February 2010,
Brussels). For example: Plant health threats to agriculture from globalisation and climate change (Mike Jeger
and Marco Pautasso, Imperial College London); Forestry health threats from globalisation and climate change
(Gillian Allard, Forestry Officer (Protection and Health) Forest Assessment, Management and Conservation
Division, Forest Management Team Forestry Department, FAO).
48 World Bank/World Trade Organisation Workshop: Climate Change and Agricultural Trade: Risks and
Responses, Washington, 22-23 September 2009. This workshop was financed by the Standards and Trade
Development Facility of the WTO and was aimed primarily at identifying the risks and threats to trade and
development arising from climate change. Conference participants concluded that climate change is a reality and
the scientific evidence is now judged to be conclusive by the multilateral agencies, and there is commitment to
review and adapt their policies accordingly to both promote mitigating actions and help confine the rise in global
temperatures to tolerable levels.
49 COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT Accompanying document to the WHITE PAPER:
Adapting to climate change: Towards a European framework for action Human, Animal and Plant Health
Impacts of Climate Change {COM(2009) 147 final}
Food Chain Evaluation Consortium 44