2454 final report.pdf - Agra CEAS Consulting

Evaluation of the Community Plant Health Regime: Final Report
DG SANCO Evaluation Framework Contract Lot 3 (Food Chain)
plant(s)
Estimated
potential
impact
Impact to date
Data on the
sector
Potato diseases Key host
plant(s)
Estimated
potential
impact
Impact to date
Data on the
sector
Thrips Palmi Key host
plant(s)
Estimated
potential
impact
Source: Potting et al. (2009)
In the Netherlands, loss of1%-5%, equal to 5-25 million €/year (crop losses) and 4 million €/year (pest
management).
On the basis of current figures of production and impacts from literature and relevant data from specific cost survey,
estimated potential impact would therefore range from 1.7 billion € (50%) to 3.4 billion € (100%) for IT, ES, PT, EL;
8- 40 million €for UK, NL, BE (i.e. 1-5% of production) 205
Spain: Loss of 50-100% of production
Source: EPPO (2008)
Production of tomatoes (2008) :15.3 million tonnes
Value of production: approx. 6 billion € (source: EUROSTAT) Italy accounts for 43% of production (approx. 6
million t in 2007), Spain for 28% (3.9 million t in 2007), Greece for 10% (1.3 million t in 2007). 66% of total tomato
imports in the NL and 38% of total tomato imports in the UK come from Spain.
Exports: 244 million € (2008) (ES: 28 million €; IT: 13 million €)
Potato
Potato brown rot in the Netherlands may cause between 4.2 and 192 million €of export losses based on a partial
equilibrium analysis (export losses) which considers 4 export restrictions scenarios based on previous levels of
detection.
Source: Breukers et al. (2008)
n.a.
Area: 2.1 million ha (2008)
Production: 61 million t (2008)
Value of production: 10 billion € (value at basic price) (2008)
Exports: 381 million € (2008)
Wide range of glasshouse ornamental and vegetable crops, particularly plants in the families Cucurbitaceae and
Solanaceae, such as Cucumber, aubergine, tomato and sweet pepper
MacLeod et al. (2003) estimates with a partial budgeting method (lower quality and yield, increased control costs,
additional research and export losses over 10 years) an impact for the UK equal to 16.9 – 19.6 million £over 10 years
(slow spread scenario: 62.5% of host area infested – 100% of the host area infested). Without loss of exports, impacts
fall to between 0.6 and 3.3 million £over 10 years.
205 For Tuta Absoluta, two different rates of damages are applied: 1%-5% (Potting, 2009 205 ) crop losses in countries mostly importing and cultivating in glasshouses (NL,UK, BE) and major producing
countries, cultivating also in fields, which may incur crop losses of the level of 50% -100% of production (EPPO, 2008). A MS responding to the survey indicated the rate to be equal to 10%, most
probably considering the effect of control measures to reduce the spread of the HO. The estimates are extrapolations of existing studies, which only consider ‗first round‘ effects of the HO on production,
by applying the estimated or observed mortality to the current production figures. The estimations do not evaluate effects on prices, nor export losses or any other indirect effect.
FCEC 199