Infrastructure Delivery Plan (Feb 2013) - Runnymede Borough Council

Conclusion
Risk ID Description Probability Severity
IDPR017
Growth of hospital catchment area
outpacing growth of St Peter’s Hospital
Low
High (for
those
involved)
7.34 The masterplan at St Peters Hospital will allow for improvements to the facilities during
the plan period to accommodate an increased population. The requirement for
additional secondary healthcare facilities over and above those already approved at St
Peters Hospital is considered highly unlikely during the plan period. This is in part due
to the existing provision at St Peters Hospital, in conjunction with Green Belt and
flooding constraints elsewhere in the Borough
Private healthcare, nursing and residential care
Existing conditions and provision
7.35 As mentioned elsewhere in this report, both Runnymede’s and Surrey’s population is
predicted to rise over the coming decade with notable increases in the number of
people aged 65 and over. Specifically, the ‘Adult Social Care Commissioning Strategy
for older people in Surrey 2011-2020’ states that the 65+ population will increase by
10.8% and 19.6% by 2015 and 2020 respectively. The life expectancy in Surrey for
men is 79.8 and 83.3 for women. Overall the 65+ population is expected to overtake
that of the under 16s within 20 years.
7.36 It is estimated that there are 14,830 people with dementia over the age of 65 in Surrey
at the current time with a projected increase to 18,600 by 2020. This reflects the
national forecast for an ageing population. As at 2011, 20,623 people in Surrey have a
learning disability, with 3,969 aged 65 and over. The latter figure is expected to rise by
over 20% to approximately 4,800 by 2020 (Adult Social Care Commissioning Strategy
for older people in Surrey 2011-2020).
7.37 In Runnymede itself, as with the Surrey forecast, there is predicted to be notable
increase in population for people aged 65 and over up until 2030. The tables below
depict the increases in the over 65 population in the Borough between 2012 and 2030,
with the first table showing these increases using numbers, and the second table
showing the increases expressed as percentages.
Table 12 - Population aged 65 and over in Runnymede, projected to 2030
2012 2015 2020 2025 2030
People aged 65-69 4,300 4,500 4,000 4,500 5,300
People aged 70-74 3,100 3,500 4,200 3,800 4,200
People aged 75-79 2,800 2,800 3,200 3,900 3,500
People aged 80-84 2,200 2,300 2,400 2,800 3,500
People aged 85-89 1,400 1,500 1,800 2,000 2,300
People aged 90 and
over
Total population 65
and over
900 1,100 1,300 1,700 2,000
14,700 15,700 16,900 18,700 20,800
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Runnymede IDP DRAFT – February 2013