Evaluating Alternative Operations Strategies to Improve Travel Time ...

SHRP 2 L11: Final Report
The automobile manufactures will play a role by providing a broader range of car models (more
than just luxury models). They will have in-vehicle safety systems such as automated cruise
control and lane departure warning systems. All vehicles will have stability control and air bag
systems. Telecommuting will be more widespread than in today’s condition. Most terminals at
ports will have gate appointment systems to manage queues and congestion on surrounding streets.
Overview of Alternative Futures and Their Impact on Transportation
The alternative futures discussed previously in this report define a range of conditions within
which travel-time reliability can be managed. These bound and characterize the likely future
situations that transportation managers will face, in terms of the key variables that can influence
reliability. These futures were grouped according to the current and potential trends to identify (1)
a range of factors affecting the operation of the transportation system and demands for it, (2) the
frequency of non-recurring congestion, (3) the priorities likely to be placed on mitigating such
congestion, (4) the technologies that may exacerbate the problem or facilitate effective responses
to it, and (5) the broader social, environmental, and contexts within which the future transportation
system will be managed. As noted before, these trends were combined to produce a set of three
future scenarios.
Optimistic Scenario
The optimistic scenario assumes positive future outcomes for climate change, economy, and
energy. A key assumption of this scenario is that technological advances will provide alternative
sources of energy at costs similar to today’s levels. New technology will also dramatically reduce
transportation’s contribution to greenhouse gas emissions, achieving a 75% reduction in GHG
emissions relative to year 2000 levels by 2030. The impacts on transportation from climate change
will be less severe than expected. This will occur, in part, because new technology will provide a
solution to anticipated escalating energy prices and climate change, and economic growth will be
stimulated with a steady increase in employment and population within the U.S. The demand for
reliable transportation will increase because of (1) increased travel demand as a result of strong
economic, population, and employment growth and (2) new technology makes more reliable
transportation systems feasible.
In terms of technological advancements, improvements in computing and communications will
make levels of data analysis and technical and institutional integration possible. Open road tolling
will be used to generate transportation funds. Congestion pricing and variable speed limits will be
implemented on major commuter routes to maintain maximal flow and reliability. This
management strategy will make roadways reliable enough so that travelers will use the Internet to
reserve a space in a lane or on a freeway (for a price) that will ensure arrival at a selected time.
Advanced traffic signal algorithms will work with pricing algorithms to optimize traffic flow on
arterials. Arterial corridors will have multi-jurisdictional adaptive signal control. Weather and road
surface information will be integrated into the decision making process so that traffic flow can be
optimized for weather and road conditions and to optimize winter maintenance operations.
Agencies will have the policies and procedures in place and the data available to manage
transportation systems for reliability. The toll systems will provide a wealth of probe vehicle data.
Historical, real-time and predictive traveler information will be available so that customers can
compare travel time and costs and choose the travel option that provides the best value for their
situation. Information will be available in homes on mobile devices and in vehicles via seamless
interfaces. Road and congestion information will be good enough, connections to the Internet will
A CONCEPT OF OPERATIONS Page 105