Evaluating Alternative Operations Strategies to Improve Travel Time ...

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SHRP 2 L11: Final Appendices Figure B.5 - Diurnal Speed and Speed Variability The Solution The variability in the a.m. peak period in the northbound direction on the facility generates costs that are borne by the users of the facility. The cost of the travel-time variability can be converted to a certainty-equivalent value, which tells us the additional time motorists are willing to spend on the facility if only the variability in travel times could be eliminated. This certainty-equivalent value of unreliability can then be converted to real dollar values by applying the user’s value of time. Data Needs • High-resolution speed data • Volume data by vehicle type Cautions • Applicable to data for which travel-time variation can be suitably characterized by the lognormal distribution Procedure • The steps involved in the calculation are outlined below: Step 1 – Characterize the Recurring Congestion Problem A. Obtain speed data for each 5-minute interval (or other appropriate interval). B. Calculate the average speed and the standard deviation of the log of speed. C. Construct log-normal distribution using the log mean and log standard deviation of the speed to confirm the speed data are log-normally distributed. Step 1 – Characterize the Recurring Congestion Problem DETERMINING THE ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF IMPROVING TRAVEL-TIME RELIABILITY Page B-41
SHRP 2 L11: Final Appendices A. Date 1/2/2007 1/3/2007 ….. ….. ….. Table B.12 - Speed Data Time 6:00 6:05 6:10 …….. 9:50 9:55 Step 2 – Calculate Certainty-Equivalent Value of Unreliability A. Choose the appropriate option formulation (European Put option or American Put option). B. Determine the risk-free interest rate to be used in the analysis. C. Calculate the contract length, based on the lowest 1% speed. D. Calculate the certainty-equivalent value of reliability for the roadway using the options formula. E. Convert the certainty-equivalent value from miles per hour to minutes per mile. DETERMINING THE ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF IMPROVING TRAVEL-TIME RELIABILITY Page B-42
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