Evaluating Alternative Operations Strategies to Improve Travel Time ...

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SHRP 2 L11: Final Report 58. Road-use Pricing: How Would You Like to Spend Less Time in Traffic? Brookings Institution, June 2009. 59. Options for Improving Sustainability and Mechanisms to Manage Solvency (GAO), Highway Trust Fund, June 2009. 60. Increasing privatization (New infrastructure financing options will make franchising and tolling more common) 61. The Fuel Tax and Alternatives for Transportation Funding, TRB Special Report 285, 2006. 62. A new framework for Transportation Funding – Paying our Way, National Surface Transportation Infrastructure Financing Commission, February 2009. TRENDS AFFECTING TRAVEL-TIME RELIABILITY Page 49
SHRP 2 L11: Final Report 5. ALTERNATIVE FUTURES USING ALTERNATIVE FUTURES TO IDENTIFY TRENDS The objective of crafting the alternative futures was to group the current and potential range of trends and scenarios identified in Chapter 1 to identify the following: a. A range of cumulative impacts on the operation of the transportation system and the demands placed upon it; b. The frequency of non-recurring congestion; c. The priorities likely to be placed on mitigating such congestion; d. The technologies that may exacerbate the problem or facilitate effective responses to it; and e. The broader social, environmental, and contexts within which the future transportation system is managed. These alternative futures are not forecasts but rather are a mechanism for bounding the trends that might impact congestion and reliability. To capture the range of possible impacts, these trends were combined to produce a set of three possible future scenarios: • Alternative Future 1: The Optimistic Scenario • Alternative Future 2: The Mediocre Scenario • Alternative Future 3: The Pessimistic Scenario Global climate change, economy, and energy were considered to be the defining variables within each alternative scenario. The first alternative (the optimistic scenario) features minimal change in severe weather events, strong economic growth (including rapid technology innovation), and stable energy prices. The second alternative features typical (historical) weather-related events, moderate economic growth and advancement in technology, and some increases in energy prices. The third alternative describes a future that brings an increase in severe weather, continued economic contraction coupled with little technology growth, and escalating energy costs. For each of the alternative scenarios, likely influences on the other known trends and on the operation of the transportation system and travel behavior are described. In addition, the potential effects of these trends on the sources of congestion are noted. As the future gets closer, the attributes of the highway system naturally become clearer and strategies can be adapted to meet more specific challenges and needs. The immediate task is to develop the strategies and treatments (in the context of a Concept of Operations) that can be used to assure the satisfactory performance of the transportation system under any and all of these possible outcomes. ALTERNATIVE FUTURE 1: THE OPTIMISTIC SCENARIO The optimistic scenario assumes a positive outlook on the future as it relates to the climate change, economy, and energy. A key assumption of this scenario is that technological advances in energy will provide alternative sources of energy at an expense comparable to today’s levels. New technology will also dramatically reduce the contribution of transportation to greenhouse gas emissions, achieving a 75% reduction in GHG emissions relative to year 2000 levels by 2030. The impacts from climate change are also less severe than expected. In addition to new technology providing a solution to anticipated escalating energy prices and climate change, economic growth is stimulated with a steady increase in employment and population within the U.S. The demand for reliable transportation will increase because of 1) increased travel demand as a result of strong ALTERNATIVE FUTURES Page 50
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