Evaluating Alternative Operations Strategies to Improve Travel Time ...

SHRP 2 L11: Final Report
a high volume. Today, the average mile on an interstate highway carries 10,500 trucks per day.
This number is expected to increase by 2035 to approximately 22,700.
Truck traffic will increase proportionately more than more than passenger vehicle traffic with the
most dramatic growth in urban areas. This increase is due to long-term global growth and
globalization, supply chain practice such as just-in-time delivery as well issues such as constrained
rail infrastructure capacity which may move goods from rail to the trucks. The limited capacities of
already congestion port and road infrastructure in urban area will eventually constrain urban
freight growth and truck trips.
It is also expected that the continued shift to just-in-time delivery systems will result in more
vehicles hauling smaller truck loads with greater economic incentives to operate more efficient
light trucks, particularly in urban areas. The future will also see a countervailing trend toward
larger trucks, particular for intercity routes since they will offer increased revenue per ton mile.
Freight paths will become more volatile as global trade patterns shift. Freight and passenger traffic
will continue to share the same network for the most part and hence a future increase in passenger
congestion will adversely affect freight traffic and vice-versa. With inadequate funds for new
infrastructure and with the growth in freight and passenger traffic, conditions are expected to
deteriorate and freight system disruption will be more common.
Some of the key freight trends noted by the Rand Corporation include:
• Speed and reliability have deteriorated in the past few years in all freight-transportation
modes. Reliability was judged by most users as a key attribute in their transportation
choices, sometimes more important than speed.
• Congestion in urban areas is a factor that significantly degrades freight-system
performance.
• Operational improvements that increase efficiency (and reduce cost and environmental
impacts) are the most-effective near-term source of increased capacity.
• Potential operational improvements vary from new labor agreements and changed
regulations to various information technology (IT) applications to increased visibility and
control of the system.
FINANCE, ROAD PRICING, AND INNOVATION
The current U.S. road pricing and investment policies are such that there will continue to be a gap
between available funds and infrastructure investment needs. As a result, it is likely there will be
increasing levels of congestion and unreliable travel during peak periods. Pavement and structure
deterioration are likely to continue throughout the roadway system, especially on lightly built
streets and roads. A frequently suggested option is integrated variable pricing and corridor
investment policies. Such an approach would allow for a better match between funding and the
need for cost-beneficial improvements. Under such a pricing and investment scheme, it is likely
there will be less of a perceived need for new capacity. The existing capacity of the roadway
system can be better utilized through policies such as congestion pricing. Regardless of the
specific approach for closing the gap between available funds and infrastructure needs,
government will probably have to leverage its resources to obtain private sector funding through
one of the many different types of public-private partnerships (PPP).
TRENDS AFFECTING TRAVEL-TIME RELIABILITY Page 42