Evaluating Alternative Operations Strategies to Improve Travel Time ...

SHRP 2 L11: Final Report
Freight Trends
• Economic growth and increasing population will result in a rapidly increased demand for
freight and freight movements. Congestion due to higher passenger VMT growth and
infrastructure capacity limitations will lead to freight mode shifts from truck onto rail,
water, and (to a lesser extent) air.
Financing Trends
• Due to the switch to alternative or highly fuel-efficient vehicles, this future will see
extensive application of vehicle-use charges based on location, vehicle miles traveled, and
time of day. This will become the dominant source of funding for Federal highway
projects. States and regions will also rely on this funding source. A revenue-neutral VMT
user charge, indexed to inflation, will therefore stabilize agency funding.
• Public Private Partnerships will continue to play a role in financing the highway system
through construction and operations of tolled new capacity in urban areas and high demand
intercity corridors. High-Occupancy Toll Lanes and Express Toll Lanes with dynamic
pricing will be common.
Effects on the Sources of Congestion
The expected travel behavior and the impact the scenario drivers that are described for the
Optimistic Scenario could have on transportation system reliability are shown in Table 5.1.
Table 5.1 Optimistic Scenario Effects on Sources of Congestion
Source of Congestion
Traffic Incidents
Weather
Work Zones/
Construction
Fluctuations in
Demand/ Special
Events
Traffic-control Devices/
Signal Timing
Bottlenecks
Effects of Scenario Drivers
• Possible increase in traffic incidents due to increased VMT will be offset by
safety gains through technological advancements related to:
o Congestion
o Run-off the Road Crashes
o Weather Management
o Incident Management
• Stable impact of weather on congestion
• Technological advancements
• Comprehensive, accurate data related to construction management activities
will provide pre-trip information
• Economic growth and technological advancements will allow better
integration between various aspects of construction activities. This will allow
optimization of construction activities and allow less disruptions and
congestion to road users
• Automated enforcement of speeds through work zones improves safety
• Comprehensive, accurate data related to special event activities will provide
pre-trip information
• Technological advancements will allow for improved system management
(TSM&O)
• Widespread automated red light enforcement improves safety
• Severity of bottlenecks will increase
• Freight related bottlenecks will increase at modal facilities/transfer centers
ALTERNATIVE FUTURE 2 – THE MEDIOCRE SCENARIO
The driving variables—climate change, the economy, and energy—will be in a range that supports
moderate economic growth as well as the deployment of advanced technologies for transportation
systems and operations. Energy prices will continue to increase, but supply, in the form of
traditional and alternative fuel sources, will be fairly reliable. The demand for reliable
ALTERNATIVE FUTURES Page 53