Evaluating Alternative Operations Strategies to Improve Travel Time ...

SHRP 2 L11: Final Report
• Significant increase in development and sales of unconventional vehicle technologies, such
as flex fuel, hybrid, and diesel vehicles. Hybrid vehicle sales of all varieties will increase
from 2% of new LDV sales in 2007 to 40% in 2030. Sales of plug-in hybrid electric
vehicles (PHEVs) will grow to almost 140,000 vehicles annually by 2015, supported by tax
credits enacted in 2008. Diesel vehicles will account for 10% of new LDV sales in 2030
and flex fuel vehicles (FFVs) will account for 13%.
• The U.S. consumption of primary energy will grow from 101.9 quadrillion British thermal
units (Btu) in 2007 to 113.6 quadrillion Btu in 2030, a rate of increase of 0.5% per year
(slower relative to history).
TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION
The Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act of 1991 (ISTEA) established a Federal
program to research, develop, and operationally test Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) and
to promote their implementation. The program was designed to facilitate deployment of
technology to enhance the efficiency, safety, and convenience of surface transportation, resulting
in improved access, saved lives and time, and increased productivity. Today, some of the common
applications of ITS include:
• In-vehicle ITS
• Traffic-Signal Optimization/Retiming
• Traveler Information Systems
• Traffic-Incident Management
• Safety Service Patrols
• Surveillance and Detection
• Road Weather Information Systems
• Electronic Toll Systems/Open Road Tolling
• Ramp-Metering Systems
• Electronic Border Crossing Systems
• High Occupancy Toll Facilities
• Work-Zone Management Systems
Other key transportation-related technology trends that are anticipated include the following:
• Sharp decrease in cost of advanced wireless condition and performance sensors.
• Increased pressure for efficiency of freight logistics, coming from increasing fuel prices
and/or aggressive competition among markets and between modes (One aspect of this is
the increased reliance on large-scale intermodal facilities).
• Substantial increases in vehicle fuel economy, either through evolution of the IC engine,
new fuels, or radically different energy systems (e.g., hydrogen fuel cells).
• Increases in capabilities and decreases in costs of broadband communications technologies
that support work/shop/learn at home.
FREIGHT
The existing freight system is congested and brittle. As a result, even the smallest disruption in
service causes great unreliability, congestion, and delay. According to AASHTO, it is expected
that there will be a 90% increase in tons moved domestically by 2035, resulting in approximately
25% of the traffic on the National Highway Systems (NHS) to be trucks with 8% of traffic having
TRENDS AFFECTING TRAVEL-TIME RELIABILITY Page 41