Evaluating Alternative Operations Strategies to Improve Travel Time ...

SHRP 2 L11: Final Report
• Higher but uncertain world oil prices
• Growing concern about greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and their impacts on energy
investment decisions
• The increasing use of renewable fuels
• The increasing production of unconventional natural gas (natural gas extracted from coal
beds and other low-permeable sandstone and shale formations)
• The shift in the transportation fleet to more efficient vehicles
• Improved efficiency in end-use appliances
Using a reference case and a broad range of sensitivity cases, AEO2009 illustrates these key
energy market trends and explores important areas of uncertainty in the U.S. energy economy.
As shown in Figure 4.3, total U.S. demand for liquid fuels is anticipated to grow by only 1 million
barrels per day between 2007 and 2030 in the reference case, with no growth in oil consumption.
Oil use is curbed in the projection by the combined effects of a rebounding oil price, morestringent
corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards, and requirements for the increased
use of renewable fuels.
Figure 4.3 Total Liquid Fuels Demand by Sector (million barrels per day)
Source: Energy Information Administration: Annual Energy Outlook 2009
Some of the key projections in the Annual Energy Outlook include:
• World oil prices will rise to $130 per barrel (real 2007 dollars) in 2030
• The use of renewable fuels will grow strongly, particularly in the liquid fuels and
electricity markets.
• Overall consumption of marketed renewable fuels will grow by 3.3% per year. This
includes wood, hydroelectricity, geothermal, municipal waste, biomass, solar, and wind for
electric power generation; ethanol for gasoline blending, and biomass-based diesel.
TRENDS AFFECTING TRAVEL-TIME RELIABILITY Page 40