Evaluating Alternative Operations Strategies to Improve Travel Time ...

SHRP 2 L11: Final Report
significantly, both for the individual traveler, as well as for industry, where transportation costs
will become a much greater share of the production cost.
Responding Trends
The secondary effects in this scenario are determined by assessing how current trends and factors
will be affected and respond to an increasing rate of climate change, a worsening of economic
conditions, and increasing energy prices.
Demographics and Land Use
• With increasing travel costs, there will be increased pressure for lifestyles that minimize
the amount of income that goes toward transportation. This could mean more mixed-use
developments, more dense development through land-use and zoning regulations, more
urban concentration, and more emphasis on safer and better infrastructure for pedestrians
and bicyclists.
Technology
• Substitution technologies for transportation will be used more often by transportation users.
This will be done primarily due to the high cost of travel, and the convenience and
affordability provided by telecommunications. Such technologies also represent an
opportunity for transportation agencies to convey information in a more ubiquitous and
cost-effective manner.
• There will likely be more applications for advanced traveler information services through
ITS technologies. Information such as weather information systems, alternate route and
mode selection services, and car pooling services will be readily available to permit
travelers to determine their desired objective (routes that minimize cost, routes that
minimize GHG emissions, etc.).
• In-vehicle hazard identification technologies will be on a large portion of the vehicle fleet,
and strategies such as speed management will be used by transportation agencies to
manage system performance.
Policy and Institutional Trends
• Government policies will likely be adopted to reduce greenhouse gas emission and to
prepare for climate adaptation challenges (such as aggressive policies on fuel consumption,
targeted CO 2 reductions, etc.). Greater coordination among transportation agencies will
occur in order to provide more-efficient/cost-effective transportation, especially across
jurisdictional boundaries. More-aggressive policies will be adopted to improve
management of the system such as incident management systems, speed enforcement and
management, active traffic management, etc. Government policy could very well be to
provide dollars aimed at stimulating the economy, with much of this investment aimed at
transportation systems. Government incentives might be provided to provide for moreefficient
freight movement.
Freight Trends
• The demand for freight and freight movements will grow modestly. Infrastructure capacity
limitation will impact Just in Time (JIT) manufacturing, resulting in more trucking activity
to support time-critical business processes. Growing energy prices will increase the cost of
moving freight and the manufacturing of many goods will shift from overseas to the United
States. This will shift some freight traffic away from ports, increasing the use of trucks and
contributing to roadway congestion.
ALTERNATIVE FUTURES Page 59