Evaluating Alternative Operations Strategies to Improve Travel Time ...

SHRP 2 L11: Final Report
In terms of technology, some automated transit and freight lanes will be deployed in markets
where fares or fees can be raised to cover costs. The only automated auto lanes will be located
where private companies are granted franchises to build lanes. A great deal of traveler information
will be provided but it will not be as good as the information provided in the optimistic scenario
due to fewer probe vehicles. Automated enforcement will be needed for speed, red light running
and toll evasion. Luxury and mid-priced vehicles will have active and passive driver assistance
systems but lower priced vehicles still lack the latest systems. The slower economy means that
more people will still use older vehicles without the latest safety systems. As a result, more
incidents will occur in this scenario than will occur in the optimistic scenario. Non-recurring
congestion will be worse. Incident management will be used to improve communication
technology to efficiently coordinate between first responders, towing companies, trauma centers,
and TMCs. The deployment of incident response systems will be the same as described in the
optimistic scenario, but there will be more emphasis on incident management and less emphasis on
disaster response. Telecommuting will be popular when congestion is bad but commuters will not
have the comprehensive information needed to make optimal choices. As a result, the effectiveness
of the information will not be as high as it could be.
Some weigh stations, ports of entry and borders will use inspection technology that allows for
trucks to by-pass at freeway speeds or a facilitated inspection. Logistics efficiency and JIT will be
relevant but will not be a primary driver of freight mobility. Security and infrastructure health
monitoring will be limited to major facilities. Some hazmat vehicles will be tracked. The location
for some global trading patterns will shift as more manufacturing moves back to North America
due to rising energy prices. Also, more containers from Asian ports will go directly to east coast
and Gulf ports via an expanded Panama Canal or the Northwest or Northeast Passages - thereby
reducing cross-country rail and truck trips but increasing short haul trips in those port cities.
Pessimistic Scenario
For the pessimistic scenario, the key drivers (climate change, the economy, and energy) will be in
a range that does not support economic growth due to, among other influences, more frequent
severe weather events and increasing energy prices. It is assumed that the drivers of change will
result in negative outcomes, such as an increasing rate of climate change, a greater decline of
economic conditions, and increasing energy prices. In this scenario, the demand for reliable
transportation will increase because of policies and goals focused on (1) reducing fuel
consumption, (2) decreasing greenhouse gas emissions, and (3) supporting economic growth. With
the high value of travel cost, delays will become a much stronger economic constraint. Thus,
strategies aimed at reducing delay and travel variability will become an important component of
state and regional transportation strategies to improve system performance. Large scale
applications of technology, financial tools, and institutional arrangements will be needed to
support this focus on system reliability. Since the economy in this scenario will not be very robust,
the amount of funding for transportation improvements relative to the needs will be greatly
restricted. Steep increases in energy prices, the increasing effects of climate change, and low
population growth will mean that car usage will be limited and agencies experience less pressure to
improve traffic performance. An increased number of disruptive weather events will occur.
In terms of transportation system funding, very limited tolling will be implemented on facilities
with existing tolls and funds will only be available to pay for new facilities. Tolls will be removed
when a facility is paid for. A relatively large gas tax increase will occur, but this increase will still
not generate enough revenue to cover major improvements to the system. The number of existing
A CONCEPT OF OPERATIONS Page 107