Evaluating Alternative Operations Strategies to Improve Travel Time ...

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SHRP 2 L11: Final Appendices Time of Day Table B.2 - Illustrative Option Calculation for an Urban Freeway Average Annual Speed (mph) Log Average Annual Speed Std Dev Log Speed Option Value (mph) Option Value (minutes per mile) 14:00 57.11 4.02 0.25 5.64 0.115 14:05 56.56 4.01 0.29 6.49 0.137 14:10 55.16 3.95 0.42 9.25 0.219 14:15 53.78 3.92 0.43 9.14 0.228 14:20 52.52 3.89 0.45 9.34 0.247 14:25 51.08 3.84 0.50 10.09 0.289 14:30 50.81 3.84 0.48 9.69 0.278 14:35 50.01 3.81 0.51 10.16 0.306 14:40 48.02 3.76 0.53 10.10 0.333 14:45 46.31 3.71 0.57 10.37 0.374 14:50 45.03 3.67 0.59 10.47 0.404 14:55 43.64 3.63 0.60 10.24 0.422 15:00 41.52 3.57 0.61 9.92 0.454 15:05 41.11 3.55 0.63 10.19 0.481 15:10 39.47 3.49 0.66 10.21 0.530 15:15 37.48 3.42 0.68 10.00 0.582 15:20 35.79 3.38 0.67 9.39 0.596 15:25 34.15 3.32 0.67 8.97 0.626 15:30 33.69 3.31 0.67 8.80 0.630 15:35 33.93 3.32 0.66 8.75 0.615 15:40 32.68 3.28 0.67 8.54 0.650 15:45 29.00 3.15 0.67 7.59 0.734 15:50 26.30 3.05 0.64 6.64 0.771 15:55 24.67 3.00 0.63 6.06 0.791 16:00 23.16 2.94 0.61 5.53 0.812 16:05 23.10 2.94 0.60 5.42 0.796 Source: Counter data at I-405/I-90, South Bound, 2007. The calculations apply a guarantee equal to the average speed for each time of day. As previously stated, the data in Table B.2 are illustrative. They are provided to show the option values associated with varying speeds and log-variability on a facility. In this table, the average speed, log average speed, and the standard deviation are calculated from observed speed data. The option value (mph) is calculated from the average log speed and log standard deviation calculated from the data and the other inputs to the options formulation previously described using Equation 1. Using Equation 1, the option value will be expressed in the speed reduction that drivers would be willing to accept to obtain their speed guarantee. The option value, expressed in mph can be converted to minutes by subtracting the option value in speed from the speed guarantee and determining the additional average travel time the road user is willing to accept in exchange for travel-time reliability. DETERMINING THE ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF IMPROVING TRAVEL-TIME RELIABILITY Page B-13
SHRP 2 L11: Final Appendices Figure B.3 - Illustrative Option Values (in MPH) vs. Average Speed Figure B.4 - Illustrative Option Values (in Minutes) vs. Average Speed Using the option values shown in Table B.2, the option values (in mph or minutes) can be plotted against the average annual speed for each 5-minute period. From Figures B.3 and B.4, we can conclude that the value of unreliability at an average speed of 20 miles per hour is approximately 0.8 minutes per mile, whereas the value of unreliability at a speed of 60 miles per hour is only about 0.1 minutes per mile. These measures may be idiosyncratic to the facility studied. However, DETERMINING THE ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF IMPROVING TRAVEL-TIME RELIABILITY Page B-14
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