Evaluating Alternative Operations Strategies to Improve Travel Time ...

SHRP 2 L11: Final Report
• Continued deterioration of transportation infrastructure will result in increasing failures.
These will interrupt transportation services and decrease reliability. At the same time, there
will be widespread deployment of continuous remote monitoring technology to track the
condition of surface transportation infrastructure, providing more-accurate and more-timely
information to guide reinvestment and renewal choices. In the long term, the effect on
infrastructure will be positive.
• The vehicle fleet will see notably less dependence on fossil fuels. Unconventional vehicles
(vehicles that can use alternative fuels, electric motors, advanced electricity storage,
advanced engine controls, or other new technologies) will account for 50% of new LDV
sales in 2020. Hybrids (including standard hybrids and plug-in hybrids) will account for
65% of all new LDV sales, while micro hybrids, which allow the vehicle’s gasoline engine
to turn off by switching to battery power when the vehicle is idling, will have the second
largest share at 25% of unconventional LDV sales. Hybrid technology will continue to
spread to intermediate duty vehicles used in short range travel (e.g., delivery trucks), but
most long distance trucks will be powered by cleaner diesel engines.
• Similar to the Optimistic Scenario, passenger vehicles will, on average, be smaller than
today. In-vehicle ITS technologies will become increasingly common. These technologies
will make driving easier, more efficient, and safer. As a result, there will be a continued
gradual reduction in both crash rates and severity. Over-the-road trucks may grow in size
because of pressure for increased efficiency. The availability of accurate, real-time travel
information will influence travel behavior, including departure times, mode, and route
choice. This will soften peak periods and increase user expectations for reliable
transportation services. Improved technologies and reduced costs will facilitate substitution
of telecommuting and teleconference for some travel, reducing peak demands on all modes
of passenger transportation.
• There will be moderate improvements in transportation systems integration, smoothing the
interfaces between modes for both freight and passenger travel. This will effectively reduce
the cost of travel and promote multimodal travel. Travel activities around intermodal
terminals will increase.
Policy and Institutional Trends
• VMT charges, incentives and rules to require vehicles to be more efficient will become
more common—particularly if pressures from the European Union and elsewhere in the
world force U.S. compliance with global regulations. Investment priorities will continue to
focus on renewal and rehabilitation, with capacity additions coming mainly through
operational, integration, and pricing improvements. Those infrastructure expansions that
are implemented will primarily be for providing access to new activities, congestion relief
and reliability improvements, service to high occupancy vehicles or transit improvements
(especially bus rapid transit). Funding will still be scarce. So, not all transportation
problems will be solved. There will still be a gap in terms of infrastructure needs. More and
better real-time information on system performance and condition and more effective data
integration will support more-open and better-informed investment decision-making.
Freight Trends
• Continued economic and population growth will result in a growing demand for freight and
freight movements. As energy prices increase the cost of moving freight, the manufacturing
of some good will shift from overseas to the United States, thereby increasing roadway
congestion and shifting some freight traffic away from trucks and onto rail and water.
ALTERNATIVE FUTURES Page 55