Evaluating Alternative Operations Strategies to Improve Travel Time ...

SHRP 2 L11: Final Report
be fast enough, and remote office technologies will be effective enough so that people can decide
to telecommute when the system is not working well or when costs are too high. With the advance
of vehicle-infrastructure integration technologies, some automated highway systems will be
deployed for trucks, transit and autos.
Since there will be adequate transportation funding, intercity transport alternatives such as highspeed
rail and automated lanes will be available for trips under 300 miles, thereby reducing VMT.
Parking information systems will eliminate wasted urban mileage spent searching for parking
spaces. Active and passive driver assistance systems will dramatically reduce accidents and,
concomitantly, non-recurring congestion. Driver assistance systems will be good enough that only
minimal automated enforcement is needed.
When an incident does occur, response will be very quick. The appropriate emergency services
and vehicle removal equipment will be routed optimally to the incident and then to the trauma
center. First responders will be in communication with the trauma center, incident response, and
TMC during the process. Due to the reduction in incidents because of driver assistance systems,
incident response will be more focused on disaster response, including evacuation planning.
Intermodal transfer of goods will be seamless due to appropriate information systems and
technology. Freight information and a cargo matching system will reduce the number of empty
trips by trucks. Systems will be available to indicate availability of loading dock space to reduce
truck search and wait times in urban areas.
Mediocre Scenario
In the intermediate scenario, the key drivers (climate change, the economy, and energy) will be in
a range that supports moderate economic growth as well as the deployment of advanced
technologies for transportation systems and operations. Energy prices will continue to increase, but
supply, in the form of traditional and alternative fuel sources, will be fairly reliable. The demand
for reliable transportation will increase because of (1) a stronger economy and increased
employment, (2) pressure for efficiency coming from climate change and energy constraints and
regulations, and (3) emerging technologies making more-reliable transportation systems feasible.
This demand will draw new technologies into the marketplace and promote their deployment.
Since the economy in this scenario will be less robust, the level of tolling will be less and the
amount of funding for transportation improvements will be less. Increasing energy prices and
moderate population growth will mean that there will not be as much pressure to accommodate car
usage as there is in the optimistic scenario. However, congestion will still need to be managed.
In terms of transportation funding, a gas tax is still used to raise some revenue and tolling will be
implemented on major freeways and on facilities in need of replacement. Congestion pricing will
be implemented only in the most heavily congested large cities. A few lane or facility reservation
systems will be in operation. Advanced traffic signal algorithms will improve arterial traffic flow,
but congested conditions will still occur during peak periods. Agencies will manage major
facilities for reliability but will lack data to manage the overall system. Weather and road condition
information will be closely monitored due to the increase in rare events. This information will be
incorporated into traffic management, pricing and maintenance decisions. In general, it will not be
possible to keep traffic flowing at an optimal level because data will not be available for all parts
of the system and prices on many parts of the system will not be set high enough to optimize traffic
flow.
A CONCEPT OF OPERATIONS Page 106