Evaluating Alternative Operations Strategies to Improve Travel Time ...

SHRP 2 L11: Final Report
Finance
• The national government may take steps to use technology to enhance revenue collection
(VMT tax, etc.). With economic stimulus a national and/or state goal, there will likely be
more government funding for capital investment and operations/management (although this
funding will likely come from non-gas tax revenues).
• Given the declining road revenues from gas tax receipts (due to declining vehicle miles
traveled, use of higher efficiency vehicles, and mode shifts) there may be increased interest
in public private partnerships.
Effects on the Sources of Congestion
The expected travel behavior and the impact of the scenario drivers that are described for the
Pessimistic Scenario could have the impacts on transportation system reliability are shown in
Table 5.4.
Table 5.4 Pessimistic Scenario Effects on Sources of Congestion
Source of Congestion
Traffic Incidents
Weather
Work Zones/Construction
Fluctuations in Demand/
Special Events
Traffic-control Devices/
Signal Timing
Bottlenecks
Effects of Scenario Drivers
• With a reduction in VMT, total crashes will decline
• Weather-related crashes will increase and represent a higher proportion of total
crashes
• Nature of crashes might change as follows:
o Congestion related crashes decrease
o Run-off the road crashes increase because of extreme weather
• Increase frequency of rare events, such as tornados, heavy rain and snow storms,
flooding, etc., will cause service interruptions and decrease travel-time reliability
• Work zones will become more common because of the following:
o Infrastructure failures and infrastructure maintenance and renewal activities
due to adverse weather
o Government policies to stimulate the economy through public works programs
• Stresses on the aging electrical grid will lead to failures and the need for street and
lane closure for utility repairs
• With less disposable household income, there will be fewer visits to special events,
thus reducing their overall number
• Lower demand for travel will reduce roadway volumes and most likely reduce large
fluctuations in demand as well
• Weather-related disruptions will disable traffic-control devices on more occasions
• Higher energy costs could affect the ability of operating agencies to operate signal
systems or any other system requiring energy consumption
• Weather-related bottlenecks will increase in number and severity
• Given reduced travel volumes, the severity of existing bottlenecks will decline for
both passenger and freight movements
SUMMARY OF ALTERNATIVE FUTURES
The possible range of future outcomes for the three scenarios is summarized in Table 5.5. These
three different scenarios help to define the possible range of impacts. This summary spans the set
of reasonable predictions that are taken from on a variety of studies. It provides a basis for
developing a robust set of Concepts of Operations for the future. These future scenarios also
highlight the significant changes the may unfold in the future to help DOTs, MPOs, and members
of the transportation industry ensure that our infrastructure, both physical and institutional, is
prepared to address the transportation needs during the next twenty years.
In response to the scenario drivers and responding trends that are shown on Table 3.2, agencies
and the private sector have an opportunity to begin implementing strategies and treatments that can
ALTERNATIVE FUTURES Page 60