Evaluating Alternative Operations Strategies to Improve Travel Time ...

SHRP 2 L11: Final Report
communications technology will make it possible to deliver performance, route guidance,
and rerouting information to travelers wherever they are located. Over time, travelers will
learn to utilize this comprehensive information on the transportation system to adapt their
travel choice in terms of cost, time of travel, destination, mode, and route to maximize their
own benefits.
• There will be continuing and expanded deployment of available ITS technologies for
incident detection and management, signal coordination, and freeway corridor
management. These will include current and emerging technologies as well as new
technologies that will see widespread application. Best-practice incident-management
techniques will become pervasive and all of these technology deployments will reduce
delays and increase reliability.
• The vehicle fleet will see notably less dependence on fossil fuels. Unconventional vehicles
(vehicles that can use alternative fuels, electric motors and advanced electricity storage,
advanced engine controls, or other new technologies) will account for 70% of new LDV
sales in 2020. Hybrids (including standard hybrids and plug-in hybrids) will account for
65% of all new LDV sales, while micro hybrids, which allow the vehicle’s gasoline engine
to turn off by switching to battery power when the vehicle is idling, will have the second
largest share at 25% of unconventional LDV sales. Hybrid and pure battery technology will
be common in heavy vehicles used in short-range travel (e.g., delivery trucks), but most
long-distance trucks will be powered by cleaner diesel engines.
• Passenger vehicles will be smaller than today. In-vehicle ITS technologies will be standard
in all new vehicles. These include integrated navigation devices, speed monitors, lanechanging
warning devices, radar braking, etc. These technologies will make driving easier,
more efficient, and safer. As a result, there will be a continued reduction in both crash rates
and severity. Over-the-road trucks may grow in size because of pressures for increased
efficiency. The near ubiquitous availability of accurate, real-time travel information will
influence travel behavior, including departure times, mode, and route choice. This will
soften peak periods and increase user expectations for reliable transportation services.
Improved technologies and reduced costs will facilitate substitution of telecommuting and
teleconference for some travel, thus reducing peak demands on all modes of passenger
transportation.
• The information revolution will change the characteristics of transit services, not only
providing travelers with a broader range of choices but also supporting management of
tight service integration, vehicle meets, and overall end-to-end service connectivity. All
fare collection will be electronic, seamless, and will not create boarding and alighting
delays. Information and integration will make mixing travel modes, within trips and from
day to day, the norm rather than the exception. The result will be higher quality of service
for travelers, and, as a result, the demand for still more reliability.
• There will be substantial improvements in transportation systems integration, smoothing
the interfaces between modes for both freight and passenger travel. This will effectively
reduce the cost of travel and promote multimodal travel. Travel activities around
intermodal terminals will increase.
Policy and Institutional Trends
• By 2030, through the development and rapid adoption of new technologies, the U.S. will
achieve a 75% reduction in GHG emissions relative to year 2000 levels. Attainment of
emission targets due to technological advances obviates or reduces the need for regulatory
policies restricting energy use and VMT.
ALTERNATIVE FUTURES Page 52